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S&P 500 Hits Record High as Traders Bet on More Upside

Market Movers: Midday

October 6, 2026

Video Transcript

Remy Blaire: And with midday trade underway, let's go out to Chicago.

FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins us live from the Cboe trading floor.

Hi, Mark.

So now that we have seen record highs for the Nasdaq as well as the S&P 500 today, tell us about the activity you're following in midday trade.

Mark Payton: Yeah, good morning.

So today we're watching the contrast between stocks at record highs and relatively calm volatility.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as you mentioned, both reached record highs this morning, with technology and AI continuing to help drive the market higher.

The S&P is up roughly 0.6%, and the Nasdaq is also up about the same.

But here at Cboe, the VIX remains around the 15 level, and it's down on the day.

So even with stocks pushing further into record territory, we're not seeing investors rush for protection against a major near-term selloff.

We're also watching the bond market.

The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.28%, pulling back from those multi-decade highs.

We've also been watching that, so you take some pressure off stocks, particularly growth and technology companies.

And oil is moving lower as well, with WTI around $87 a barrel and Brent around $98 a barrel.

So right now, you've got stocks at records, relatively calm volatility and some relief from both Treasury yields and oil prices.

So it's a pretty favorable combination for equities, Remy.

Remy Blaire: And, of course, when we're talking about new record highs for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, there is concentration here, especially with those tech names.

So what are prediction market traders saying about where the index goes next?

Mark Payton: Yeah. So with the S&P 500 reaching another record today, this is an interesting one.

So Polymarket is looking at how high the major ETF that tracks the S&P 500 could climb during October, and traders clearly think there's still some room for this rally to run.

The $780 level has effectively already been reached.

So now traders are putting about a 70% probability on reaching $790 sometime this month.

Now, if you move that up to $800, the probability drops to about 43%.

And at $810, it probably falls further to about 23%.

So there's a pretty clear takeaway.

Traders think additional upside is possible, but confidence drops quickly as you get to those really high levels.

And that lines up with what we're seeing here at Cboe today: stocks at record highs while volatility remains relatively calm.

Remy.

Remy Blaire: Well, we will have to wait and see what actually happens without a crystal ball.

So thank you so much for joining us this afternoon, Mark.

Mark Payton: Thank you.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reaching record highs as technology and AI continue to support the market, while volatility remains relatively subdued. FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins Remy Blaire from the Cboe trading floor to break down the combination of record equities, easing Treasury yields and lower oil prices.

The VIX remains around 15 and is lower on the day, suggesting investors are not rushing to protect against a major near term selloff. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back to around 5.28% from multi-decade highs, while WTI and Brent crude are also moving lower, providing some relief for equities and particularly growth and technology stocks.

Payton also looks at prediction market expectations for additional S&P 500 upside in October. Polymarket traders put roughly a 70% probability on the major ETF tracking the index reaching $790 during the month, while the odds fall to about 43% at $800 and 23% at $810, signaling optimism that the rally can continue but declining confidence at increasingly higher levels.

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