Remy Blaire: And while it's lunchtime here in New York, it is 11 a.m. in Chicago at Cboe. Let's head on over to FINTECH.TV contributor Mark Payton, who's live from the trading floor.
Hey, Mark, it is a sea of red for U.S. stocks, and we are still looking at elevated yields as well as oil prices. So get us caught up on the trading action over at Cboe.
Mark Payton: Hey, Remy. There's definitely a more cautious tone here in Chicago this morning, with stocks under pressure, Treasury yields around 5%, investors looking ahead to tomorrow's Fed decision.
The S&P 500 is down about four-tenths of a percent as we move through the morning here at Cboe. The VIX is around 17.6.
But what's interesting is what's happening underneath that number. Investors have been increasing their hedges ahead of the Fed. So while we're certainly not seeing panic, there is clearly more demand for protection with uncertainty around rates, inflation and oil.
And keep an eye on the Russell 2000. Small caps have been one of the stronger parts of the market this year. The Russell came into today up more than 16% for 2026, but it has pulled back from its August record as higher rates begin to test some of the momentum.
So $100-plus oil, elevated Treasury yields and tomorrow's Fed decision. Definitely a more cautious feel here in Chicago today.
Remy Blaire: Yeah. And Mark, speaking of the Fed decision, we have a little over 24 hours to go for that. But the CLARITY Act cloture vote is coming up in a little over two hours from now.
So what are prediction market traders expecting when it comes to this vote?
Mark Payton: It's interesting. Polymarket traders are essentially trying to count the vote before the senators cast them.
Today's vote is procedural. The Senate needs 60 votes to advance the legislation. But Polymarket traders are already looking beyond today and betting on what an eventual final Senate vote could look like.
And they're even pricing it senator by senator. For example, traders currently give Jacky Rosen and Thom Tillis each about a 42% chance of voting yes on final passage.
There's also a separate market looking at how many senators will ultimately vote for the legislation, giving us another way to see how traders are handicapping its chances.
The most striking number is the bigger question: Does the CLARITY Act actually become law this year?
Right now, market traders are giving it only about a 12% chance of being signed into law before the end of 2026. It's gone up a couple points, down, but around that level. And that market has attracted nearly $18 million in trading volume.
So there's a lot of money behind that prediction. Traders aren't ruling it out, but they're clearly skeptical this gets all the way across the finish line this year.
And we'll get a much better sense of where things stand this afternoon when the Senate votes on whether to move the legislation forward.
Remy Blaire: Well, we will have to just wait and see what the outcome is this afternoon.
So, Mark, appreciate your time as well as your insights. Thank you so much for joining us from Cboe.
Mark Payton: Thank you.
