Let's bring in the great. Ryan Dietrich, he is chief market strategist at Carson Group, one of my favorite all time guests. Good to see you again, man. Thank you for being here.
Well, thank you for having me back. I appreciate.
It. So let's talk about the June peak and where we're at today. So we're closing right around 75, 91st June peak, 7620, the 50 day moving average. What do you see in terms of where we are now relative to those two indicators you're following?
Well, we broke them today and we would have liked to see those areas full of support. Now listen, it's not all over yet. Yeah, I like to see on like a weekly closing basis if we break that. But we all get it. The market's been kind of choppy the last five weeks. Little weakness. Yeah I'm a CMT you know market technician.
We have seen deterioration in market breath right. I think it's like less than 20% of stocks are up to 20 moving average on the SP 100 right now. That's like the lowest since again, like the late March or early April lows. So we're getting to that oversold area. I think it's going to spiral out of control. I think it's just indigestion ahead of the fed.
Really.
When you see a weakening breath that I tell you, pretty normal consolidation or potential early warning sign of something else, we should pay at least a little bit more attention to.
Well, I'd say it's early warning sign. I don't think it's anything major. I guess what we're saying here. Um, you know, we can get into lots of different things in September. Everybody knows everybody's talked about it. The worst month of the year, the last 50 years, ten years, 20 years. Midterm years.
Not very good either. We get all that stuff. Um, you know, I think what's fascinating is about the big sneeze over there. Um, what's fascinating is, you know, the market is only saying the fed is going to do two hikes the next 12 months. We're Carson Group, you know, we've said is going to run it hot. We've said this is an inflationary growth environment.
Inflation around three three 9%. But market does well. Economy does well but bonds don't do so well. Yields are stubbornly high. A lot of this stuff is kind of playing out. And we'd still almost say the fed is net dovish. Let's say they hike next week. Let's say they hike one more time in the next 12 months.
They probably should be hiking more. That's not my job. Our job is not to say what they should do, which is what they're going to do and how we position our portfolios. We still still think they're running it hot, and that's probably still positive for this bull market.
How much does that underscore the importance of tomorrow's CPI print? We had a wholesale number earlier today. Is this the last big thing that Kevin Warsh and his FOMC colleagues will take into the September meeting?
Yeah, I think you and I were talking before we went live. I think it's almost 70% chance of a hike, no less. And that that that can go the other way tomorrow. It's all going to come down to tomorrow. Um, I wouldn't be shocked at all. We had a little bit better inflation. There's some some things we see there, but in this case we don't think the Fed's going to hike.
Believe me, they could um. But I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
You've been bullish all year for as long as I've known you. You tend to look at these historical trends, and I know you have a bullish outlook 15 to 18% kind of year over year S&P target. How are we tracking on those goals. What could derail that type of growth in the S&P.
Well we're tracking pretty well. The total return base is about 1,112% right now. And I know September October can be a little squirrely. You know those things are out there. Um, when you see the earnings, I mean, the consumer everybody knows about the consumer. Consumer is still solid. You look at how much debt that's out there.
Yeah. JD we've got a lot of debt, but we have a lot more equity. You know Varghese, we've been on your show before. Sundar does this incredible work on our team. Balance sheets for households like in the best shape they've been in 50 years. I know people hear that and they kind of shake their head like, no, it's true.
There is a lot of equity out there. So this is still a bull market and the economy is pretty solid in our opinion.
Shout out Sona Varghese. He's one of my favorite guests as well.
Um, well, he said I had to do that or.
I had to give him a plug. I understand he's welcome on the show anytime. We also have the midterm elections coming up. And I don't talk pure play politics a whole lot, but I don't know if it's in the best interest of long term investors not to at least, or day traders even to have their finger on the pulse of it.
How do you track a big event like that, knowing there could be one market reaction into the midterms, and after we get the answers on that first Tuesday of November, the market could start to shift a bit.
Exactly. History don't repeat itself often. Rimes Mark Twain love that one. The fourth quarter of a midterm year. JD is like one of the strongest quarters of a four year presidential cycle, the first two quarters of a pre-election year, that'll be the first two quarters next year are like the other two.
Two. The two the strongest. Those are the three strongest out of 16. That's something to be aware of. One more. Let's say we have a split Congress. Please don't shoot the messenger. But let's say we have a split Congress. Sometimes checks and balances are really good. You're not too much spending one way or the other.
The last 13 years we had a split Congress, the SP 500 with higher and I get. There could be some randomness to that. Maybe. Probably. But I wouldn't forget that a split Congress is not the worst thing. If that's what happens, which is probably the base case right now.
Yeah, and I think that's a pretty good chance that Democrats take the House, maybe don't hold on to the Senate. That kind of gives that broker thing. And before I let you go, and I'm always grateful for your time. Big catalyst things you're paying attention to more broadly across these markets. We could also benefit from focusing on a little bit more.
Yeah, I mean, crude oil is just the story of the day. You know, right now, today, right now, today. You mentioned the stocks sectors are up. Energy wasn't up today. So that kind of has my attention. Copper was down 5% today. You mentioned that too. So those are some little clues like listen the the move in yields has been incredible.
We've been expecting a higher move in yield because we thought this inflation or growth environment. But it does feel like it's a little bit one sided out there. And that could be the next major driver obviously last I know probably late. The dollar weakness. We think the dollar weakness is a good thing.
Historically a weak dollar is a more bullish signal. That's a good thing out there.
Yeah. The dollar dixy closing today at 9908 up on the day but still falling below that psychological 100 mark for sure. Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at Carson Group one of my go to all time favorites. My man. Nice to see you again.
Thank you for having me back.
We'll talk again soon.
