Jay Woods. I believe I'm pronouncing that correctly. Jay Woods?
Got that right?
Chief market strategist at Freedom Calf, CNBC contributor, my very dear friend. Thank you for being here. First time you and I are talking since Mr. Warsh's maybe more hawkish than expected Jackson Hole speech. September rate hike on the table. How do you see things coming out to I believe two weeks from today?
haven't talked because he mentioned his two hikes to open the speech, two hikes with different fed officials, but a great Easter egg for those looking for something that may be a little more ominous for what's to come. What are we looking for right now? Well, we're just kind of chilling last few days of summer. I can wear this for two more days, hence this year sucker. But we're waiting for that unemployment number on Friday. We're looking for a little increase, 4.2%. Let's hope it comes in in line. If we get a hotter unemployment number, that throws a wrinkle into things. If it cools too much, which it won't, we may get a new wrinkle. But right now, all eyes, as Kevin Walsh did dictate, are on inflation. We'll get a CPI number and a PPI number the following week. And then the big meeting on September 16th. Mark your calendar, should be fun. As September has been known to be volatile, and September not historically a great month, and if it's going to take that leg down, we have a few catalysts, that Fed meeting being one of them that could take us lower. So we'll see.
You mentioned the jobs report coming Friday. A very quick follow-up. How much weight do you put into the private payrolls, the ADP print? We get two days before 38,000 today. Does that tell you anything? Any longer of what to expect Friday?
If it wasn't on a summer three-day weekend Friday, I'd put a little more credence into it. More people will be focused on that inflationary data next week. We may have a little knee-jerk reaction if things come in a little unexpectedly, but I wouldn't put much weight into it. Not on a Friday summer weekend. People are peddling off into the weekend. They don't want to hear about that.
Talk to me a bit about what the Stock Traders' Almanac tells us about seasonality in September. And here we are heading into a midterm election cycle coming up nonetheless. How closely should investors pay or not pay attention to what's happening?
So many nuggets don't pay attention to. I mean, you're not going to readjust your entire portfolio because why? September, over the last 100 years, the only calendar month where the markets are down on average. 11 of the last 20 Septembers have been down. So if you're playing the statistics, you kind of avoid it. 55% of the time we are up in September, but those 45% of the time have led to a negative return over September. But what do I focus on? What could drive September lower? So let's talk about those factors. We have oil. Spiking close to 90 if it gets back above 90 inflationary a problem We saw crude spike earlier in this week and a little bit of a sell-off came in today Guess what the market rallied we have a 10-year yield that is above four and three-quarter percent Trending towards 5% if we get the 5% if we get there quickly That could cause some angst and cause the equity market to sell off. And then, of course, we have that Fed meeting. So, September, historically, it peaks on the 10th trading day of September. And then it trails off. What is the 10th trading day of September? September 14th, market calendar. And it also, you know, football season. So, any coordination? I don't know. It's peak Giants season, pre-season, so congratulations to Giants season. The Eagle fans, you know, we're on track for our third Super Bowl.
The best time of the season to be a Giants fan is before the season begins.
And Mets fans, too, by the way. I do concede that as well.
I want to ask you about software. I'm going to aggressively change the topic here. Software stocks, they got kind of rocked today, but look at these three-month performances. Salesforce 30%, Snowflake 26%, CrowdStrike 20%. Are we over the SaaSpocalypse fears?
Yeah, this S-pocalypse has been mildly exaggerated. I think we're through it and we're picking winners and losers. Today we had a winner in GitLab, we had a loser in Palo Alto Networks, which is a cyber stock but also in that software select ETF. I think Palo Alto, in a few days, you're going to wish you bought this dip. personally speaking, coming into a nice technical level. But as far as the AI, eating AI, yeah, there are some winners and losers. I worry about Adobe. What is their big thing? It's, you know, Photoshop. Okay, I can replicate that. I worry about Oracle and their debt issuance and the fact that they have two CEOs. Adobe has none, by the way. They're looking for a CEO and CFO. We'll see when they report next week if they name those. So, winners and losers. But Snowflake, which reports any minute now, started the rally in these SaaS stocks. It gapped and went after its last earnings. It held on to those gains. Let's see if we can continue to watch $335, $340. If it can get back above that, it's smooth sailing to $400. So Snowflake won to watch because that software name has been the leader. We'll see if they can keep it going. Microsoft Palantir following those footsteps. The gap, they went higher. CrowdStrike last week, as we talked about, that gap, they went higher as well. Yeah, software, I think the worst is behind it. Now we watch those semiconductor names. We have a big one reporting any second now in Broadcom. NVIDIA, the biggest one in the world. They had great earnings. The stock went higher, but then it failed. It did not make a new high. Broadcom had its 200-day moving average as we're talking. it closed right on it, so it's a coin flip to us technicians whether or not it's going to go higher or lower. If I had to make a call, I think they'll go higher because I know they're going to be, they're going to raise, but the question is what kind of raise do we have? Do they follow in the steps of immunity? in NVIDIA, say that 10 times. Oh, my God. In in line was tough enough. You did. You were going in. I paused. I paused in NVIDIA. You know, you got to you got to take your time.
But Jay Woods, a great man, though he is a Philadelphia Eagles fan. I have Saquon Barkley on my fantasy team this year, though.
All right, I expect 1,500 yards, 12 touchdowns. Tush Push will take away some of that production.
If the Eagles can lose, but he has many touchdowns, that's the sweet spot for me. Not going to happen. I'm sure the birds will be top dogs.
Listen, we'll banter about this all season. You've got a great crowd here. Great show. Thanks for having me on.
We'll talk to you again soon.
