Of me chatting on because this is the man you really want to hear from, good friend of ours here on the show, Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, and everyone who watches this has been watching you on TV all day today.
Thanks for making time for us today.
My face radios all over the place.
It's always awesome to have you.
I know you like to say this bull market may in fact prove to be a bit younger than people are expecting.
What do you see here in terms of the big picture stuff, Ryan?
First of all, thanks for having me.
This is exciting.
I mean, is it always like this out here?
They're all for you.
And it is always like this at the same time, yeah, so new all-time highs today.
So congratulations, everybody.
You know this bull market, JD is about 3.8 years old, so almost 4 years old this October.
That's the eighth longest bull market since World War Two.
Sounds pretty, pretty old, right?
But then you look at those other seven, OK, they've made it a little bit further.
6 of them made it to at least their fifth birthday, an average of up over 7 years.
Now listen, these are just averages, these are just numbers, but when you look at the market, I know you like your technicals like I do, advanced decline lines across the board are hitting.
New highs.
We get into the weeds of the economy and the Fed and inflation, all that stuff.
There's a lot of positives.
I think this bull market probably has a lot more tricks up its sleeve just because it's about 4 years old.
That doesn't mean it has to end tomorrow.
In fact, it probably has 1 year or 2 years, maybe even longer left.
This despite the fact that the stock trader's almanac tells us this is normally the weak spot of the 4 year cycles as we get closer to the midterm elections.
What are you seeing going on here for people that are fans of history and maybe expected 2026 to be a bit different?
Well, I'm a fan of Jeff Hirsch as well.
The stocks for his almanac.
There, you know, this is the mid-year, midterm year and historic of the week, yes, but I think you and I maybe talked about this last time.
It's year 6 of President Trump, and I get it.
It's not 6 years in a row.
But you look at the last 5 presidents that made it to the 6th year, mark goes up every time, up almost 20% on average.
So there's something to think about there.
Yes, the 3rd quarter of a midterm year can be troublesome.
August and August and September.
I'm a guy that's out there sharing this.
Usually are two of the weaker months, but I think that was kind of pulled forward this year with the big implosion we had in AI.
Memory and all that stuff in July, um, you know, I think we're back to your regularly scheduled market, and I think we're probably gonna, well jeez, not say anything too crazy to say we're gonna have a higher August, pretty good start, but I think we can even have a higher August in September to kind of buck the trend, um, again with the earlier weakness earlier this summer.
CME Group FedWatch tool says the Fed will do nothing for September, nothing for October, but a hike.
Interest rate hike is on the table for short-term interest rates for December.
I suspect you maybe see things differently, Ryan Dietrich.
We do and we were out here at Carson Group, and I talked to Sony last time, so thanks for that.
So Sona and I released our media outlook about a month ago, and our big contrarian take there was no hikes the rest of this year.
Now, a month ago, that was almost crazy to say.
Now fast forward a month, and now the odds are maybe they're not gonna hike in September.
Everybody said we're gonna hike in September.
People thought 2 weeks ago the Fed was gonna hike, and of course they did, and the market had that big 2% drop, and next thing you know, we take off to the races.
We're not saying inflation is like great.
I mean, inflation's a little stubborn.
We had some decent.
Inflation data the last two days, but our theme is this the Fed's going to run it hot.
And if the Fed's going to run it hot with no cuts, you'll probably be overweight equities.
That's what we've been for a very long time.
We still think that's the case here.
How much are these all-time highs in the market being driven by AI spending, and what happens if and when, dare I ask, that AI spending starts to show signs of pulling back?
Well, you mentioned, you said the MAG 7.
I've been running around your city.
MAG 7 had a little weak day today even though the market was up.
Is that what you said earlier?
Most of them were actually, mostly higher.
Amazon was the only one.
OK, it makes sense.
A lot of green out there.
I mean, the big thing at the start of this year, you look at all the AI CapE spending for 2027, expected to be around $600 billion.
Now it's over $11 trillion.
So these are numbers and stats.
We're talking about some real money now, you know, JD, this is real money, $1 trillion.
Um, this spending, that's about 2.8% of the economy here in the US.
So that's still there.
We don't think it's gonna end yet.
I mean, you know, one of these days it will, and when it ends, of course that'll be a problem.
Of course that might be a, a lid on the market.
We don't think that's the case yet, but that's why we wanna stay diversified.
Kind of boring to say, but we've been very diverse.
We like to use, um, you know, kind of barbellt approaches.
You have some technology over here, but you have some financials and industrials over there, some small over here, some large over there.
It's a global market.
Just don't get too cute with it.
Be invested in different parts of it.
I think you'll still do really well here.
What is one part of this overall market story that you think we should be paying more attention to?
Maybe something we're not quite yet talking enough about.
Well, again, maybe I'll go to the technicals.
It's where I go when people ask me questions I don't have an answer for.
Uh, you know, Staples, Staples relative to the S&P 100, literally like today is hitting the lowest level ever.
That's a relative basis.
You want to see Staples lagging, JD.
Back in, you know, June and July when everybody's talking about how bad everything was and all the trouble, we were pointing this out that listen, Staples is still underperforming.
Back in March, we had a 9.1% mile correction.
Everybody's freaking out.
Long-term goals are cutting their targets, all this and that.
We never did that.
Carson, and I noted in Staples are underperforming.
If we start to see Staples get a bid, which we're not, I'll be very clear, that would worry me.
I think that's something a lot of people kind of ignore, but it has been very, very accurate.
And with new lows right now, that's, uh, back to your regularly scheduled bull market.
XLP Consumer Staples ETF up 10.5% year to date versus to your point, the S&P's broader gain of about 13.5.
Yeah, so it's up, which is fine.
Everybody's, everybody's making money, but again, it's not up as much, which is.
You want to see one of our favorite all-time guests and one of my absolute favorites and one and only Ryan Dietrich of the Carson Group.
My man, thank you for visiting us here in New York.
Listen, I've had one piece of pizza so far.
My goal is maybe 3 or 4 more.
Where should I go real quickly?
We're on the air.
Where would I go for pizza, JD?
Oh man, you got John's right up the street from down here.
John's at John's a Bleaker, a couple of locations you can't miss.
When, when in doubt, we got $1.50 slices all around the city.
This is always an honor.
Thank you, JD, my man.
Thank you.
