Remy Blaire: And with midday trade underway, let's go out to Chicago.
We are joined by FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton, who joins us live from the trading floor.
Hey, Mark. How's it going?
So we are looking at mixed trading right now for the major stock averages, and we're continuing to monitor other areas of the market.
But what are you paying attention to in midday trade?
Mark Payton: Hey, Remy.
We're seeing a more positive tone, I guess you could say, here in Chicago this morning following that cooler-than-expected PCE report.
The S&P 500 is up around half a percent, and we're also seeing small caps participate in the move, with the Russell 2000 in positive territory.
Here at Cboe, the VIX remains relatively contained around 16, so we're not seeing a major pickup in volatility this morning.
And then there's the bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.2%. We saw some relief in yields following that cooler inflation report, although rates remain historically elevated.
We also got a stronger read on the economy this morning.
Second-quarter GDP was revised higher to a 2.2% annualized growth rate, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%.
So here in Chicago, you've got stocks higher, small caps participating, volatility relatively contained and cooler inflation giving investors some relief this morning.
Remy Blaire: Yeah. And speaking of which, I'm very curious to know about what prediction market traders expect from the central bank as we count down to the October meeting.
Mark Payton: Yeah. I mean, and this is where this morning's PCE report gets really interesting.
On Polymarket right now, traders are giving the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October roughly a 60% probability, compared with roughly a 40% probability of another quarter-point increase.
And those odds have been moving as traders digest this morning's inflation report.
Year over year, PCE came in at 3.4%, cooler than the 3.7% economists were expecting.
Core PCE was also cooler than expected.
So after this morning's inflation report, traders are now leaning more toward the Fed staying put in October.
And we're seeing that same general move in traditional rate markets. Expectations for an October hike fell after the inflation report as well.
So right now, market traders are leaning toward no change in October, but it's still a pretty close call.
And there's plenty of economic data between now and the Fed meeting that could move those odds.
Remy.
Remy Blaire: Yeah, indeed.
Mark, we will be getting those CPI figures ahead of that October meeting, so something to keep our eyes on as we wrap up Q3 and head into Q4.
Thank you so much, Mark.
Mark Payton: Thank you.
