Remy Blaire: And with midday trade underway, let's go out to Chicago. FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins us live from the trading floor.
Hi, Mark. There's plenty of activity this afternoon across all asset classes. So what are you paying attention to in midday trade?
Mark Payton: Hey, Remy.
Well, here at Cboe, we're watching the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.
The broader market has been under pressure today, but small-cap stocks have been struggling even more.
The Russell has fallen about 9% from its recent high, putting it close to correction territory.
Higher borrowing costs are putting added pressure on small-cap stocks, which tend to feel the impact more than larger companies.
Meanwhile, here at Cboe, we're also watching the VIX, which has been moving higher as investors become more cautious, landing in the mid-15s.
But we're still not seeing a major spike in volatility.
And oil continues to be a major story today, with WTI trading above $92 a barrel and Brent above $104, keeping inflation concerns front and center.
So while the broader market has held up relatively well over the longer term, small-cap stocks continue to struggle under the pressure of higher borrowing costs.
Remy Blaire: Yeah. And we're also keeping a close eye on energy, in particular oil prices.
And as you mentioned, Mark, we're looking at WTI as well as Brent soaring by 5% today.
So give us a sense of what the prediction markets are saying when it comes to oil, in particular geopolitics.
Mark Payton: Yeah. So this is getting a lot of attention.
More than $14 million already has been traded on this one question on Polymarket.
And right now, traders are putting the odds at just 19% that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by December 31st.
That's a pretty low level of confidence.
It means that the market is pricing in roughly an 81% chance that traffic won't return to normal by the end of the year.
And according to Reuters, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recently fell to its lowest level in more than two months, with just seven commodity vessels passing through on Tuesday.
So that's significant because roughly one-fifth of the world's oil normally moves through that waterway.
So if the disruption continues, that could keep oil prices elevated and add to inflation concerns.
So this isn't just a shipping story. It's something that could affect businesses, consumers and financial markets for months to come.
Remy.
Remy Blaire: Well, we will continue to monitor the conflict in the Middle East.
And, of course, Americans as well as businesses are keeping an eye on this.
Thank you so much for weighing in, Mark.
Mark Payton: Thank you.
