Remy Blaire: Let's go out to Chicago. FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins us live from the trading floor.
Hi, Mark. So we are watching what's happening across the markets, but what activity are you following closely in midday trade?
Mark Payton: Hey, good morning, Remy.
You know, we've seen stocks lose some ground as the morning has gone on here. The Dow is leading the move lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also been under some pressure as investors digest this morning's economic data that we received.
Job openings fell to about 7.08 million in August, while consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, its lowest level in more than 12 years.
As you mentioned earlier, here at Cboe we're also continuing to keep an eye on volatility as stocks move lower. The VIX is around 16.2.
But there's some big news coming directly from Cboe today as well.
Cboe and S&P Dow Jones Indices announced a 25-year extension of their exclusive licensing agreement, taking that relationship all the way through 2051.
So that means Cboe will continue to have the exclusive rights to offer trading in its flagship S&P 500 Index options, the SPX.
And this is a relationship that goes back more than 40 years to the launch of SPX options here at Cboe in 1983.
So just to put the size of that market in perspective, SPX options averaged about 3.9 million contracts a day last year, up 25% from the year before.
And looking ahead, the two companies say the agreement could also open the door to new products, including potentially tokenized option contracts.
So between stocks moving lower, today's economic data and this major extension of one of Cboe's most important index relationships, there's been quite a lot happening here in Chicago today.
Remy.
Remy Blaire: Mark, of course, when we're talking about decades, we're keeping a close eye on the Treasury markets.
And with Treasury yields hitting multi-decade highs, how are prediction market traders digesting the latest moves today, and what do they actually expect to see moving forward?
Mark Payton: Yeah, there's a lot happening on that front.
So the 10-year Treasury yield is already around 5.25%, near its highest level since 2007.
And on Polymarket, traders are betting on whether the 10-year will reach 5.4% before the end of the year.
Right now, they're putting about a 55% chance on that happening.
So just slightly better than a coin flip.
And when you look at where yields are today, 5.4% really isn't that far away. We're talking about roughly another 15 basis points from current levels.
And there are plenty of things that could move those odds: inflation, oil prices, the labor market and, of course, what the Federal Reserve does next.
And one other piece of context: while the 10-year is around its highest level since 2007, the 30-year Treasury is already trading around levels last seen in 2002.
So we're seeing some historically high yields across the Treasury market right now, and we'll keep watching both the 10-year and those prediction market odds as they move.
Remy.
Remy Blaire: Yeah. As you mentioned, Mark, we'll continue to monitor those Treasury yield levels.
And, of course, looking ahead to tomorrow, we will be getting those PCE figures as well as a slew of Fed speeches.
Thank you so much, Mark, for your insights this afternoon.
Mark Payton: Thank you.
