And now let's get to the big story breakdown. With mounting concerns over U.S. debt as well as currency debasement, investors are fleeing cash and also pouring billions into hard assets such as gold as well as Bitcoin. And ETFs are also driving this shift, with Bitcoin funds pulling in nearly $1 billion in a single week. But as we head into the rest of 2026, is this rally still just a macro safe haven play or is momentum building for ETH, Solana and on-chain networks like HyperLiquid? Well, joining us live here at the New York Stock Exchange to break down the outlook is Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares. Adrian, great to have you here. Thank you so much for joining me.
Thanks for having me.
Good morning. Well, so far, 2026 has been a volatile year across all asset classes. And right now, we're continuing to monitor what's happening with fields, but also how that's affecting FX markets and in turn, dollar debasement. So tell us what you think is happening when it comes to Bitcoin and gold.
I mean, I would say there's two sides to the story. Of course, we see how Bitcoin and other crypto assets are still very much sensitive, what happens with yields, with liquidity on the broader macro picture. But I think that the basement trade is very much back on people's mind. And that's obviously the long term value proposition of a hard asset like Bitcoin. And I think that will materialize over the longer term.
Yeah. And as you mentioned, when we're looking at the overall macro outlook, we have to think about geopolitics and how that is in turn affecting inflation and also central bank rates and in turn rate differentials here. So given the fact that we're continuing to watch ETF flows when it comes to Bitcoin, tell us the role that these ETF wrappers actually play when it comes to the price of crypto.
I think it's just, it gives an indication of the health of the rally. Of course, that first spike that we saw back into the 80s was mostly driven by derivatives and by liquidity. But we've seen how institutional demand on the spot side followed quite quickly. And I think that's a very healthy indication that this rally is supported on the spot side. Therefore, investors should always keep an eye on how those ETFs behave. And also take a look at the basis, for instance, usually, and we can see how it's widened at the moment. And a lot of times we see more hedge fund activity jumping on as well. Yeah, for sure.
And Adrian, you mentioned a keyword there, and that comes from what you mentioned with health. So when we're looking at the crypto market, do you think it's too early to call the crypto winter over right now?
That's a big question obviously. I would say maybe it's too soon to call the end of the bear market but we are very very close I would say. I think we've clearly seen seller exhaustion. Everybody that wanted to sell already sold. We had a lot of big headwinds like MicroSailor selling off, a lot of leverage flush outs. While now, after long consolidation, we do have some momentum and I think that is very, very important. The indication that I want to see is how we're going to behave during September. Of course, we have the next volatility window around September 15th with the FOMC meeting and the vote on clarity. And September, historically speaking, has been a bad month for crypto but also for stocks. While October or October, how we like to call it, usually is a very good month. And on the technical side, if we really break through the 50-week moving average around those 82 levels and above, I would confidently call the end of the crypto winter.
Yeah, and as we look ahead to the rest of the month, as you mentioned, we do have the Fed Reserve meeting coming up. And in addition to that, you mentioned clarity. So there is a lot happening in this midterm election year here in the US. I do want to shift our focus now on over to your outlook for the second half of 2026 when it comes to ETH as well as SOL. So what's going on there?
I think same story. Of course Bitcoin kind of like leads the rally usually but fundamentally there's a lot of good things happening on Ethereum but also on Solana. I think Ethereum we clearly see some strength on the fundamental side. Of course, some good headlines, stable coin supplies and tokenization projects still mainly built on top of Ethereum. We have stuff like Robinhood chain, which gains a lot of traction. I would say on the risk, we still have to see all of that activity materialized to the underlying revenue for Ethereum, which we see in layer twos take away from that. Solana on the other side, very positive as well. We just crossed $4 billion in real world assets. Solana dominates in regards to tokenized equity spot trading. And also the institutional demand is picking up. It really moves away from kind of like the meme coin reputation, which is quite nice to see. So overall, I would say a cautiously bullish outlook for both assets.
Yeah, and you mentioned institutional demand, so I do want to get your perspective while you're here on hyperliquid. So we know there's been a lot of attention, but what does the demand actually tell you?
I mean, Hyperliquid continues to be kind of like the standout story in crypto this year. I think it's a financial story. Of course, we've seen a lot of volume on the crypto side, but as you know, pre IPO stocks, commodities, all types of derivatives from the traditional financial market side being traded on Hyperliquid. We see a lot of traction on the ETF side. And I can tell you from a lot of conversations with traditional investors, they just love that story. A tangible cash flow generating project is very, very appealing to them. And I think going into the next bull market, those are the projects that are really going to stick out.
And Adrian, before I let you go, we have less than 60 seconds here. So given the fact it's already September, we have less than four full months to go until year end. So when we're looking at the key themes, both the macro as well as the micro that you're paying attention to, give us your outlook.
I think overall, of course, there are some question marks on the macro side. But if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, for Bitcoin, the debasement trade, once again, still in the picture. And then for Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid, they really drive innovation for tokenization, stablecoins. And that will materialize. And overall, once again, we had 21 shares. bullish, I would say, until the end of the year. We do believe Bitcoin could reclaim the 100k. Because let's remember, after a longer consolidation, when those assets move, they move quickly. And at the moment, crypto really presents good opportunities on the relative side.
Well, Adrian, it was great having you here at the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you so much for joining us. And thank you so much for sharing all of your insights. My pleasure.
