JD Durkin: Jacob Sonenshine, stock picker at Barron’s. Always love talking with this dude. Nice to see you, man.
Jacob Sonenshine: Good to see you.
JD Durkin: I appreciate you coming by today. All right. I mean, it’s the type of day where I want to throw out everything I had planned to ask you. But more broadly, how are you thinking about tech, knowing XLK’s the worst-performing sector in the S&P? You look at these Mag Seven stocks, a lot of them have had a really nice run, but maybe it’s the type of day people don’t want to see how all of them performed. A lot of runs on the board.
Jacob Sonenshine: Today was rough. I mean, when you see data from trading desks that I get throughout the day, showing what kind of activity there was, you see a few billion dollars of net selling, which is close to as bad as it gets on a daily basis, at least for this one firm that I’m thinking about. So you have to think about it in reverse a little bit. Yesterday we had Intel report earnings, and Intel comes out. It’s down like 20 or 30% today, but I don’t know which one. But it’s like more than 20%, I believe. So when you have that happen, you have Intel down 20 to 30%, you’re going to have the SOXX, the chip ETF, down a lot.
And the last thing I want to point out about chips is that SOXX is getting supported above 465. That’s been very consistent. I know things are really rough right now in chip land, but there are some catalysts on the horizon, and I would actually be leaning into them, not out of them.
JD Durkin: Shares of Intel selling off on the day, gapping down notably, 28.5% after that earnings call. You say one tech company’s loss may ultimately prove to be another tech company’s gain. Where do you see some of the biggest winners and losers in the tech space right now?
Jacob Sonenshine: Well, if our viewers were talking to us in person right now, I’d say, did you see Meta? Because it took an entire risk-off wave of selling for Meta to go down. Before that, Meta was up on Google’s earnings. What was the issue? Search missed and search growth decelerated. But Meta’s ad business has been on absolute fire, and I think advertisers are flocking to Instagram and Facebook right now. And I think Google is possibly [unclear: “losing at the hint”].
So the point is, people say, oh, Amazon’s ad business was disappointing. Google search, disappointing. By the way, they’re trying to move some of that advertising activity, probably to Gemini at some point. But for the moment, I don’t think the aggregate demand pie for advertising is in a horrible place. I think that there are winners and losers, and I think Meta is basically a winner.
JD Durkin: I want your take on the Anthropic IPO. We’re a few weeks away. We get through the midterm elections, sometime around November 17th, 18th or so. OpenAI still on the sidelines. How do you think about those potential listings? Might be more of a questionable backdrop, but what does a potential listing from both those names mean for the broader AI trade, Jacob?
Jacob Sonenshine: Right. I love that you’re framing the question around the broader AI trade, because if you’re somebody that just needs to invest for the long term, you need to own tech. You want to own the XLK or the QQQ. I can’t wait for Anthropic and OpenAI to go public. Obviously, Anthropic will go first. I can’t wait for them to be on the public market, and they’re probably going to be big weightings in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
But what does that mean? It means if I have this thesis that I’ve now articulated, that the aggregate technology sector in terms of demand and earnings is going to be fine and there are winners and losers, then if I can get Anthropic and OpenAI into the public market, I can own XLK and QQQ and not worry about winners and losers, because I own the aggregate pie.
JD Durkin: Yeah, I’ve got about 30 seconds left. Talk to me about Dexcom, ticker symbol DXCM. What do you follow? What do you like in a name like that?
Jacob Sonenshine: Dexcom is a fairly little-known health care company. They do CGM. I’ve been tracking it for a long time. Continuous glucose monitoring devices. That’s a market, globally, of diabetic folks of over 500 million. They have only, I don’t know, 15 or 20 million today. There was a setback earlier in the week because of Abbott Labs talking about their diabetes business. Dexcom comes out and reports way better numbers than Abbott. Dexcom looks like it’s winning for the moment. I would say continue to own Dexcom, but if you don’t, I would say buy it.
JD Durkin: Most important question I’m going to ask you as a hard-hitting journalist: what is your favorite Halloween candy?
Jacob Sonenshine: I would say my favorite Halloween costume, which is a black eye from basketball on Saturday.
JD Durkin: Fair enough.
Jacob Sonenshine: My favorite candy, I’m very straight up: KitKat or Milky Way.
JD Durkin: I give the people the information you most want to know. Jacob, come back and see us anytime. Happy Halloween. Really appreciate your take on tech and much more today.
Jacob Sonenshine: Happy Halloween!