Remy Blaire: They're underway here in New York. Let's go out to Chicago.
FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins us live from the Cboe trading floor.
Well, thanks, Mark, for joining us again. Q4 trade is officially underway, so what activity are you following right now?
Mark Payton: Hey, Remy.
You know, all eyes are on the bond market right now.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.34% earlier today, its highest level since 2002, and remains pretty elevated as traders continue to watch the move in rates.
We're also seeing some of that uncertainty show up in volatility as well.
The VIX has moved up to about 17.4 today, reaching a two-week high.
So we're seeing a little more caution coming into the market.
The Russell 2000 is also under some pressure because of the higher borrowing costs.
And oil remains part of the story as well, with WTI right around $92 a barrel.
So here in Chicago, the focus really remains on rates, volatility and oil.
And all of that comes as the economic data continues to show some resilience.
Jobless claims remain relatively low, while manufacturing is still expanding.
So traders are balancing an economy that continues to hold up with those higher yields and continued inflation concerns.
Remy.
Remy Blaire: Yeah. And speaking of which, later today we will be getting earnings out from Nike, and that will give us a better idea of where consumers are spending, or lack thereof.
And, of course, we're counting down to tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report coming out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
So tell us what you're seeing when it comes to prediction markets, and what are market traders expecting?
Mark Payton: Yeah, these are two interesting ones to watch.
So let's start with Nike because they report after the bell tonight.
On Polymarket, traders are currently giving Nike about a 45% chance of beating $0.45 a share in GAAP earnings.
So this one's pretty close to a coin flip, 50-50.
And it's about more than just that earnings number.
Nike has been working through a turnaround, so investors will be looking for signs of progress focused around sales and margins, and whether that turnaround is starting to gain some traction.
Then tomorrow morning, the focus shifts right back to the labor market with the September jobs report.
And the prediction market there is pretty interesting as well.
Right now, prediction market traders see a 4.1% unemployment rate as the most likely outcome for September.
A 4.2% unemployment rate is the next most likely outcome.
So traders are really centered around that 4.1% to 4.2% range.
And that comes after this morning's jobless claims report showed layoffs remain relatively low.
So tomorrow gives us a much broader look at the labor market, where unemployment lands, how many jobs are added and ultimately what that can mean for the Fed.
And with Treasury yields already elevated today, you can bet traders will be watching that report very closely.
Remy Blaire: A lot of moving parts and so much to keep our eyes on as we head into the weekend.
Mark, appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining us.
