A property can rise in price and still disappoint as an investment — because what matters is the income it earns, the cost of holding it, and whether you can sell it when you actually need to. Joining me is Dr. Moguib El Rahman Abo Amer, Assistant Professor of Architecture at King Khalid University. Doctor, welcome to the show.
Thank you. Thank you for having me.
For someone comparing Cairo, Riyadh, and Dubai — what is the most important difference in who will actually live in, rent, or use the property?
The main difference is who actually ends up living there. In Cairo, most buyers are Egyptian families buying a home they will live in themselves — real demand driven by real jobs and government programmes moving people in, backed by housing support. While in Dubai, the typical user is a flying tenant staying temporarily, and the owner is often an investor who never lives there at all. As an example — an apartment in New Cairo bought by a family who will live in it for years versus a unit in Downtown Dubai bought purely to rent out to tourists. That is the fundamental difference.
In Egypt, a higher price in pounds can look like a gain. How should an investor work out whether they are actually better off once inflation, currency movements, and the cost of ownership are included?
A higher price in pounds does not always mean a real gain. You need to subtract inflation from that price increase first. And if you are thinking in dollars, you also have to account for how much the pound has weakened. Then take out the real costs — maintenance fees, any financing. If what is left is smaller than a simple, safe alternative like a dollar savings certificate, then the gain on paper was never real.
If a project offers a small down payment and a long instalment plan, how do you judge whether you are getting good value?
With instalments you have to bring future payments down to today's value — not just add up the numbers as they are. Then you compare that to a finished unit that is already earning rent from day one. The real question is not which price looks lower on paper. It is about how many years of rent you are giving up for that lower price, and what you lose if the project is delayed.
With new cities and districts, buyers are paying today for a neighbourhood promised tomorrow. Which signs tell you that jobs, transport, and services will actually arrive — and which signs suggest the buildings are running ahead of the market?
There are two types of signs. The good signs: jobs actually moving in, not just announced — transport actually arriving, not just planned — schools and shops actually open. The warning signs: transport links being pushed back again and again, finished buildings sitting empty, and developers selling new phases before they have even finished the last one. Those are the signs that indicate there is a real issue.
Egypt is discussing tighter oversight of developers to address stalled projects. What evidence would convince you a developer can actually deliver — and what would make you walk away?
The good news is that Egypt is preparing a new law — a developers body, protected payment accounts tied to real construction progress, unified contracts, and a rating system that screens out developers who are not financially or technically ready. What would convince me a developer can deliver: a real track record of handing over projects on time, and payments that are clearly linked to verified progress on site. What would make me walk away: a history of repeated delays, selling a new phase of a project before finishing the old one, or return promises that do not add up once you actually check the numbers. Those things are genuinely concerning and make me walk away when I come across them in this field.
Thank you very much Doctor Moguib. It has been a real pleasure having you with us.
Thank you so much.
