Jay Woods, not a mag 7.
It's kind of a mag 7 down 3% today.
Jay Woods joins us now.
Thank you for being here.
Hey, it's good to be here.
Good to be back from vacation.
Shout out to Seattle City.
Good time.
Sea Isle City.
That's where you were.
Yes, I saw you hit the links.
Yeah, I hit the links, toes in the sand, a lot of, a lot of day drinking.
It was great.
It's great to have you back here.
I appreciate that too.
We have a lot to go through.
The president today saying we have a deal with Canada.
On the trade deal we were worried about that today.
We've got this Treasury stuff.
Let me get your take with two different retail reactions today.
We'll start with Target going up and we'll start with TJX storyline there, maybe a distressed consumer, a bit of a pullback.
What do you see in those names?
Yes, well, we're seeing that these retail stores, it's a question of who's doing well, who's not, what management is steering.
Tide, what's not?
And to me, Target has been the turnaround story of the year.
Michael Fiddleke, the new CEO, say that five times fast, he, he has really gotten things in shipshape condition over at Target.
Stocks up over 60% year to date.
A lot of concern that, well, maybe this year, this quarter's profits were because of tariff redemptions, but no, I mean they have been.
Month over month consistently getting that consumer back, they had a little problem a few years ago with this woke thing.
I think that's behind them.
And now inventories fine, sales fine.
Let's see how they do back to school.
TJ Maxx, on the other hand, we talk about K-shaped economy in the lower leg of that K, the lower end consumer, they tend to go to TJ Maxx.
They're struggling a little bit.
That was concerning, down 5% year to date.
Not really sure why they and Walmart, which will be the bellwether they report tomorrow, have been struggling so much.
I think we'll get more out of Walmart from that story than we will from a TJ Maxx, but to me, Target, the story of the day.
So let's talk more about Walmart.
We get those quarterly results before the bell tomorrow.
That is the largest employer of Americans outside of the federal government.
Shares up about 4% on the year.
It's been, you and I were looking at the chart earlier.
It's been steady.
Making higher lows at least since July 23rd.
What are you looking for?
It is a big one.
Yes, no, well, I'm watching price levels.
Let's see, it's below the 200 day moving average for those at home.
That to me is a barometer of health.
If it's below that average, the average price over the last 200 days, something's not right, and we need to see Walmart get back above this 118 level.
But yes, the last three months going into this quarterly report, it has been slowly, steadily rising.
If it did.
I think that person out there waiting to get into the stock will have an opportunity to do so, but I'm more curious what they're talking about as far as the guide goes, as far as that consumer goes, because on the one hand you have Target and Home Depot, pretty solid, Lowe's, eh, and then TJ Maxx kind of missed the mark.
So I think Walmart will be a better gauge, but we did have disappointing retail sales last week while I was not here, and you know I'm adorable.
Yeah, but I'm still in vacation mode, JD.
But as a result, Walmart is going to really be indicative of that consumer, see how they're spending.
I hope producers can pull up a chart of mRNA.
I love the ticker symbol for Moderna, by the way, you know where it closed 177, 177% up, surging after announcing one of its vaccines improved survival rates, more specifically for melanoma patients.
On the technicals, you look at a chart like that.
Not just an average gap up.
That is an enormous gap a solid decade worth of gains.
So what do you do with that on a chart?
How does that force you to rethink your previous technical levels, if at all?
Come to me to Fordham University and get in my class and we can talk in depth.
But no, for those watching this, this stock gapped up on the opening.
Those gaps tell stories.
The story obviously they have that new drug with Merck to melanoma.
I couldn't think of the name melanoma, but.
Investors cheered and not only did they cheer, they poured back into it.
So you use that gap as information, that opening gap.
Now when it will probably recede a little bit.
We don't know if this drug is coming to market, what the price point is going to be, but it is positive.
And now you use that gap as your floor if you're in the stock.
If it gets below there, then maybe you want to fade out of it.
But to me, This is strength.
You buy and it should continue over the next coming days, maybe weeks until we get more clarity on when this drug is going to be ready for market, what price point it's going to be, and how well received it will be by the consumer.
Yes, Speaking of melanoma, don't forget to always wear your SPF folks watching at home.
I've got less than 1 minute left.
The big guy in the room, the big gorilla, next Wednesday.
The 26th.
Nvidia, you're looking around.
You're like Jensen is here.
What are you looking for out of the big one next Wednesday?
Nvidia, I mean, you hate to say this one stock is the most important stock in the world, but I'm going to say it's the most important stock in the world.
It is the highest weighted stock market cap wise, so we'll move markets.
What are we going to watch?
We're going to watch the guide.
All right.
They're going to beat.
I'm going to.
Promise you they're going to beat on earnings.
They always do.
The guide should be good.
How is that spend going to work?
Are they issuing any debt?
That's been a new theme that we've seen this quarter.
And you know, how does the street react to it?
It's trading a little off all-time highs.
It has room to go to 240, close around 216.
Look at your little chart there.
I don't know.
I was down here studying, to be honest with you, but. was, you know, it's well off its lows.
It's in this midpoint, I think good news, it could run to 240.
The question is, will it be good enough to lift the market and get to new highs.
We are in those seasonal headwind times, September and late August, worst time of the year for the stock market, and Nvidia can change that.
It closed at 21768.
16.
The great Jay Woods.
Thank you for being here as always.
