Let's bring back Peter Tuchman, the Einstein of Wall Street.
Why not?
Thank you.
So you and I were talking right before the bell, potential catalysts, things that market participants will be paying more attention to.
We do have Nvidia earnings next Wednesday.
That's a potential market moving event.
It's absolutely, and I'm not sure.
Look, obviously tech got a little bit rocked here today.
OK.
Do I feel like there's an anticipation that something negative is going to come out as far as Nvidia?
I don't think so, but we don't know, right?
We know that 58, 98, 96%, 9.
98% of the S&P have beaten, is it 98%?
Was that the number I've been used?
It was, yeah, a majority of the stocks in the S&P have beat earnings and guidance.
Amazing because we are actually reporting earnings coming out at a time we're in the midst of a major conflict in the Middle East where oil went from 67 $39 a barrel up to $120 and hung out above $90 to $100 for a long time.
The, the inflationary impact of that, which we've felt all along the way, I don't even.
If we really felt how powerful that is because that's huge, right?
The economic numbers we've got in the last couple of days have not really set us in a direction that much, but we definitely did see for many of the days over the last month when oil was up, right, the market was down.
So there's that trade alone.
But we do know that look, think about the components going on.
We had earnings, we had oil, we had the war in the Middle East.
That's a big deal.
We still don't have a resolution around that.
We have the Reserve new chairman.
Our first meeting we had was while he was talking.
This market rallied beautifully, and the minute he was done, we sold off aggressively.
Now some people say it was to do with that trade, you know, the Citadel, you know, 50 cents on the dollar buyout of that hedge fund.
Maybe that was something to do with it, or maybe it was the fact that this new Fed chairman is not going to do what Jay Powell did, which was give everybody an inkling of what his plan was to do beforehand, right?
I mean, there was transparency.
There was honesty.
I actually like the guy.
Right, and I like the way he presented himself, but the bottom line is we don't know him that well yet, right?
We know that every day it's changing.
Right now it's 66% probability there'll be no change in the interest rates, right?
And it was, you know, a week and a half ago there was like a 56% chance that they were going to raise them.
Look, anybody looking at this is going to know that, you know, under Trump's watch, are we actually going to have interest rates be raised?
We don't know.
We don't know how he's.
Going to position himself.
We do know that for the last 4 or 5 years that, you know, Mr.
Trump has been, you know, deeply on top of Mr.
Powell about even considering ever raising them, let alone staying in this interest rate cutting cycle that we were in for a little while.
However, we know this is a different person, a different governor.
First time in a long time we had dissent amongst the ranks in that last meeting, right?
We knew that.
And so I don't know if the market is yet comfortable with the way he postures himself, positions.
And what we're going to expect when it happens.
If we get economic data between now and then that shows us that inflation is a little stickier, then anything can happen.
So I'm presenting you with, you know, if we unpack everything that's on the table, it's a lot.
I, you know, I know I look like Einstein.
I'm not that smart.
I'm not sure I can explain to you how all of this ends up, right?
You know, I know the market with everything going thrown at this market, the market still is trading at amazing records.
We were at the S&P 7.
800 earlier in the week, right?
I mean, the Dow Jones is trading at 53,000 plus, right?
These are spectacular numbers taking into account everything that's gone on over the last number of months.
We are still in the midst of a major global confrontation.
I don't want to get ahead of ourselves.
You got those AK hats ready for the S&P.
I mean, not quite yet.
Yes, but before you know it, they're on order.
Peter Tuchman, the Einstein of Wall Street, thanks for coming back and chat with us some more.
We'll talk to you again soon.
I'm not guest number 2, am I?
No, you're always guest number one, always guest.
