Global Markets are keeping a close eye on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
Now the US inking a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, but now Trump is saying the agreement is contingent upon the kingdom joining the Abraham Accords and Venezuela withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, with the US State Department asking other countries to do so.
The Trump administration viewing the ICC as biased and useless.
Meanwhile, the Russian-Ukraine.
And more continues to escalate.
Ukrainian President Zelensky is visiting the White House this week and tensions flaring between Kiev and Tehran following a deadly Ukrainian strike in the Caspian Sea.
Iran demanding a meeting with Ukraine's top diplomat to protest the attack, and President Trump said to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday.
Well joining me as we kick off a new trading week is Patrick Young, founder and chairman of exchange.
Jim Patrick, good morning.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Well, I do want to start off with what's happening in the Middle East and in particular with Iran.
So Axios is saying Trump called off strikes over the weekend while the Wall Street Journal does say that Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent war planes to attack Iran earlier this month.
So when it comes to the conflict right now, we are seeing a pause.
So what are you anticipating and what are you watching?
Well, we've had a very short term drop in oil, which is obviously welcome as it was back above $100 last week.
But again, what we were talking about last week, look at the way the infrastructure is being changed in the world in order to manage to improve, to get more oil and gas coming out through the Mediterranean.
And everything ultimately is moving away from Iran.
Every single day that Iran manages to hold on.
It may seem as if they're winning, but ultimately there is an incredible. ringing of steel that is around them.
The news at the weekend that multiple different countries, the Emirates, etc. have been sending in, in different ways, attacks and also supporting each other, shows the brotherhood, the alliance that there is against Iran at the moment.
Iran is truly isolated.
It's not Iran as a nation, it's the IRGC.
And again, what are we seeing?
Everybody's trying to put pressure on the IRGC, the criminal.
Body that is effectively commanding the country at the moment and giving a puppet state of Ayatollah them too, hoping that the great Iranian nation is going to come back and we will see a classical Persian renaissance.
So it's all to play for.
The US basically playing a very, very interesting game, pulling back from their attacks.
But of course, after 2 days, 13 nights in fact, of relentless bombing and attacks.
That's putting the entire state of Iran under pressure.
And at the same time, while it looks as if Trump has taken a step back, there is all to play for in this environment.
Because ultimately, we saw rather than in the White House last week, we know that the bulk of the Middle East is coming around, even if they're not directly allied to what is effectively a US centric worldview right now.
Yes, and Patrick, I do want to expand on this and focus on the nuclear aspect of this, and this week the White House will also be busy with visitors including Netanyahu and Zelensky, but the US and Saudi Arabia did sign a civilian nuclear deal last week, and Trump saying that this doesn't include enrichment and it's strictly for power.
But when it comes to the nuclear deal, what are your expectations?
I have to say I would start by actually adding a little footnote.
Wasn't it very interesting to watch President Zelensky effectively doing the dirty on Iran during the course of the week in the Caspian Sea, just reminding President Trump that he's got a certain something that he could bring to the entire Middle Eastern conflict, which won't hurt him while he's trying to keep Russia pinned down.
Now, at the same time, what are we seeing with Saudi Arabia?
I think what we've got here is macro politics in action.
It is incredibly difficult for the good folks in Riyadh and Jeddah to.
Turn around and suddenly say, we're going to embrace Israel and we're going to recognize the state.
But the Abraham Accords, that created a fabulous building block for what's going on here.
And of course, the UAE remains within those Abraham Accords.
A fantastic achievement of the first Trump diplomatic effort during his first term.
Challenging as the Trump presidency always happens to be in either episode.
And what we're seeing here is Trump very cleverly calibrating.
He's putting pressure on the Saudis.
He's trying to force them into.
Of the Abraham Accords.
And at the same time, it leaves open a little doorway where Saudi Arabia could say, well, actually, in the interests of broader peace throughout the region, we're going to join the UAE and other nations in the Abraham Accords.
We're going to end up helping the United States of America by recognizing Israel.
And there is a way forward here.
Will it play out?
Will it work?
It's a huge out of the money option right now.
But it's a very, very interesting strategy.
Yes, and Patrick, indeed it does seem as though there are many simultaneous chess games being played around the world right now, but I do want to shift our focus on over to South America.
So Venezuela's Dulcie Rodriguez has withdrawn from the ICC, and this is a move that does please the US State Department.
So did Venezuela do this because of Rubio's influence, and do you expect any other countries to potentially follow suit?
This is a fascinating moment in South American history, because what we're seeing is a renaissance effectively of American influence, and also a renaissance of free market capitalism.
Look at Argentina, etc.
Venezuela, the surprise there is not so much that we have a woman president or a woman acting president.
It's just the fact that it's not Maria Machado, who many people.
People thought Trump was going to install.
Instead, cunningly, the USA have managed to use Dulcie Rodriguez as a caretaker who is effectively a puppet of the United States of America, while at the same time talking out of the other side of her mouth, the old fashioned Bolivarian socialism, which has completely failed the people of Venezuela for more than a generation now.
So yes.
The, the hand of Rubio, the invisible hand of Rubio in South America strikes again here.
They've withdrawn from the ICC complaining about the iniquity of how the ICC deals with the global south.
But that's playing fabulously well for the State Department in what is absolutely the epicenter of the global North, Washington DC.
Well, Patrick, a lot to keep in mind as we kick off a new trading week, so I appreciate your time and thank you so much for joining us on this busy Monday morning.
