America is officially 250 years old.
Fireworks lit up the night skies all across the nation this weekend.
And to close out the holiday celebration, President Trump and 150,000 people waited out the storms in DC, all for a good reason, the largest pyrotechnic display in world history.
And across the pond, the lack of air conditioning is coming into question as countries battle ongoing heat waves.
Over 3700 people have succumbed to the heat.
The continent hasn't always embraced AC in the same way Americans have.
Though currently demand for Chinese air conditioner air conditioners is raising in Europe despite trade tensions.
And joining me to discuss this and more is Patrick Young, chairman and founder of Exchange Invest.
Patrick, thank you so much for joining us today.
Good morning.
So Patrick, a huge party across the US for America's 250 from the ball drop in New York City to the largest fireworks show ever in Washington DC.
We saw patriotism was on full display this weekend.
So what did you observe from the outside looking in?
What an incredible weekend it was, of course, as you mentioned, the biggest fireworks display in Washington DC since, well, the Canadians took over the capital all those centuries ago.
And something more than that, I mean, it was a huge celebration of Americana from start to finish.
You haven't even mentioned the big wedding.
Taylor Swift getting married in Madison Square Gardens.
What a spectacular event that was that lit up the world.
But at the same time, it, it raises interesting questions about the media.
CNN, the communist News Network, doing their best to manage to cover the funeral of the dead Ayatollah of Iran throughout the course of the weekend.
Ladies and gentlemen, I have no idea why they were doing that when there were so many spectacular things to look at.
An incredible speech by President Trump at Mount Rushmore, and many, many more things where the whole of the USA was.
Able to get together and celebrate, and all those people who are over there watching that soccer tournament thingy could manage to marvel at just how prosperous the United States of America is, because let's not forget, if you're a European nowadays, you think you're probably rich as, say, the 7th or 8th or 9th state in the USA, but actually, predominantly you're about as rich as the 51st state.
So Patrick, we've seen thousands of people tragically lose their lives to the ongoing heat.
So tell us why Europe hasn't embraced air conditioning the same way Americans have and if this change is moving forward.
Yes, it's fascinating, isn't it?
I mean, even at this point in time, I think you can be defined on the poverty line.
I do believe about 80% of people in America who are defined as in poverty have air conditioning.
Whereas I would say 80% of Europeans don't have air conditioning.
A lot of them are not on the poverty line either.
Partly it's been inertia within Europe over the course of many years, but also there's a great deal of government thinking going on here, particularly in France and other countries, where they fundamentally tried to keep air conditioning out.
They're using a green argument that it's adding to global warming, but ultimately it kills citizens and therefore seems to me to be slightly insane.
And I suppose one might argue that if you kill your citizens, they can't possibly not vote for you at the next election, but at the same time, it underlines what is the fundamental crisis of Europe at the moment.
A lack of leadership, a lack of foresight, a lack of understanding of what's going on.
And let's face it, they don't even have that much desire to truly defend themselves.
So along those lines, Europeans are buying Chinese air conditioning air conditioners despite trade tensions, and we also saw that the US failed to renew the U.S.MexicoCanada trade agreement.
So what are you watching for when it comes to global trade relations?
Well, at the moment, obviously the biggest thing in global trade relations is the fact that a lot of people can't get a lot of very important goods through the Straits of Hormuz.
Gradually that seems to be easing, but don't forget that's 20% of global gas.
It's a vast percentage, somewhere around the same sort of number of global fertilizer that is being fertilized with petrochemicals itself.
So those are tensions that are fundamentally upending the supply chain, for starters, and that's causing all manner of crises across the world.
Trade tensions are still there.
Europe is getting very, very antsy over digital products from the USA, largely because the Europeans weren't able to fund in the same way that Silicon Valley and God bless America, American capitalism and venture capital has managed to storm forward and take the future.
But it's a very interesting point.
Here we are, we're all buying Chinese air conditioners across Europe at the moment, an industry that didn't even exist 3 or 4 decades ago.
If Europe had had foresight, it could have been making the air conditioners itself.
So Patrick, this week we know NATO leaders, they are meeting in Turkey, and Trump has said that the relationship doesn't work for the US and he's also reportedly growing close to Turkey's leader.
So what are you watching for in this?
Going to be very interesting, heading off to Ankara.
Obviously we've already seen Mark Rutte trying very, very hard to keep Donald Trump on board.
There's a lot of talk in the media about is Trump about to abandon NATO?
No, all Trump is doing is the same thing that going back to President Obama, if not before, we saw from US presidents, which is asking Europe to pay at least its fair share.
Now at the moment, the benchmark is being set up.
5% as being that number.
But remember, already the British Prime Minister has fallen, so we're going to see him, Keir Starmer, doing a swan song tour as a lame duck, and actually he's going home to a crisis because nobody understands how he's going to be able to fund the extra spending that he's put together towards his military.
Therefore, there are some good guys in the room, as Trump's going to see it.
Where I am today in Poznan, in Poland, the Polish government seen Being very, very favorable towards NATO.
They impress Trump with their commitment to 5% spending, as do various of the Baltic states.
But the difficulty really is how many of these nations are going to come through with what they're going to manage to produce.
Trump, Erdogan, well, of course, that's a very interesting meeting of mind, isn't it?
Two people who see themselves as strong men and the backbone of their nations are going to meet in the official capital of the Ankara, the equivalent of Washington DC and Turkey.
It will be intriguing to see how that comes together, because, of course, there's a lot spinning out all the way to the Straits of Hormuz and beyond with what's happening with Middle Eastern politics, and therefore how we approach Iran, the Shia, the Sunni, and other Muslim issues going forward over the course of the next year.
All issues that are going to be of great excitement to President Erdogan.
So let's talk a little bit more about Iran.
So we know Iran is holding a massive funeral for their Supreme Leader who was taken out at the beginning of the war.
The weeklong funeral, putting talks on hold for the time being.
So where do things stand in the war?
Well, essentially where things stand at the moment is that the US have obviously received a slightly bloody nose because they thought that the Iranians would be completely decimated by now.
But at the same time, what we're looking at is over a 2-3 year trajectory thanks to earlier work by the Israeli Defense Force.
Iran is no longer a regional power.
It's just effectively a craven corruption machine run by the Revolutionary Guards Council, who are trying desperately to hang.
On to office at this juncture, and all of their various sinecures.
Is that going to survive over the medium to long term?
I very much doubt it.
But at the same time, obviously, it's not delivered the victory that Trump wanted to see, which was women being able to take off their headscarves and being liberated.
There are a great many women in Tehran who are not wearing their headscarves at the moment, I hasten to add.
What does that tell us?
It tells us that the regime.
He has other things to concentrate on if the final push can manage to come through, therefore, things will be good.
At the same time, Trump is going to presumably strike back if there is any issue with the Straits of Hormuz, and that's going to be his calling card towards the NATO members this week to ensure that they can come together and try and ensure safety for that absolutely vital transit shipment waterway.
All right, so last question.
OPEC plus approving an oil output increase as transit rebounds in the Strait of Hormuz.
Do you expect oil prices and global and global pressures to continue falling?
Well, obviously there's gonna be one thing that's going to underpin oil and gas prices for the foreseeable future, which is a lot of countries sold out of a lot of their strategic reserves.
So we can't expect to see a plummet, even if OPEC plus really, really turn up the pipelines in the near future.
But that added output is certainly going to take the pressure, the inflationary pressure that we saw off summer driving season.
That just before the Indianapolis 500, things were looking not good before the Memorial Day weekend.
End, whereas now, certainly we're gonna be looking forward to a more, a better equilibrium.
Let's call it that way, in oil and gas.
How that's gonna figure into the winter, of course, is going to be very interesting, because now's the time you've got to pump.
Now's the time you've got to rebuild your strategic reserves.
And of course, where I'm sitting today, in, for example, Northern Europe and Poland, they need to get their gas and make sure that it's refilled as fast as possible, while at the same time, a great many nations are trying not to buy Russian oil in this part of the world.
Also, well, Patrick, thank you so much for your insight.
