We're past the midway point of July trade and the crypto majors are higher this month.
Now this week Bitcoin topping the 65,000 level for the first time since June 22nd and in morning trade we're looking at both Bitcoin as well as pulling back by at least 2%.
Now if we take a look at the coin seasonality July is a green dot in a sea of red.
Now historically this month is one of Bitcoin's best, but it's. traditionally weak Junes as well as August was sluggish September, the absolute worst month for the crypto major fast approaching and also factoring in the rumored that 4 year cycle of this theory is correct, that coins 3 year bull run ended last October and kicked off a bear market cycle that lasts around an average of 12 months.
The longer the market has drawn on, the more Bitcoin bowls have pointed to historical drawdowns as examples of temporary.
And each cycle resulting in higher lows that led to higher highs.
Joining me ahead of the weekend as Brian who's founder and CEO of Dame Brian.
Happy Friday.
Good morning and thank you so much for joining us.
Well Bitcoin is a higher in the traditionally bullish month of July.
Right now we are looking at the coin below that 63,000 level.
So what do you make of the coins price action right now?
Bitcoin here in this bear market has become very emotional for investors, and even though it's down just about 50%, um, it's really eating at people inside and it's, it's worth going over why it's so emotional for people.
Back in 2017, that was.
One of the first bigger waves of people getting into Bitcoin, and Bitcoin went from a few $1000 earlier in the year to $15,000 16,000 dollars, all the way up to $19,000 into around Thanksgiving, and many people sitting at that dining room table told their family members to invest, and they did, and then started the bear market of 2018, and those people, they felt bad for telling their family members to invest, and they also felt bad because they had a position themselves that was down.
But then, the bull market started again, and we had the bull run of 2021 in the second half of the year.
And again, Bitcoin went 40,000, 50,000, 60,000.
People were telling their friends and families to invest, do it, it's gonna keep going up.
And then again, the bear market of 2022.
And they felt bad, not only for their positions, but the positions that they told other people to invest in.
And guess what, it happened again in 2025.
Bitcoin, making all-time highs.
It sat around 1,000,000 for five months, then it went to 105, 110, eventually breaking 120.
People were telling other people to invest again, and they feel bad, but you shouldn't, and This is where the emotional side of things really gets at people in that you gotta understand, if you were telling people to buy at those higher levels, the best thing you can do for them now is to say, hey, revisit this, allocate to a position.
So, it's become very emotional.
We do have a little bit more time to go as the table showed there, um, the average duration.
Points us to an end of this, uh, kind of stomach upsetting period on October 10th.
Uh, doesn't mean that it's gonna be exactly that date will be the absolute low and we'll never look back.
Uh, it could have already passed us.
It could be sometime next month, but don't try to time it.
This is where you want to tell people, look, we're on a 50% discount, um, allocate to this sector here now.
This, this is what's on discount.
And finally Brian, before I let you go, we steps as well as moments away from the House Financial Services Committee hearing on the clarity Act taking place right across the New York Stock Exchange at Federal Hall.
So are you watching for any catalyst that could potentially lead to a breakout before the October low kicks in.
Clarity Act would help, maybe a $2500 bump in Bitcoin.
You know, the IRS knows what pure Bitcoin is.
It's treated as property and so they know how to tax it, and that's the most important thing.
Um, inside the Clarity Act, how do businesses operate in the crypto, uh, you know, ecosystem.
We know very well how we want to operate with oversight and being an RIA, but I don't think it's the, the biggest needle mover.
What we're going to need is the old whales to change their form and really start allocating the space, and then price will be get narrative and we'll see things start going back up.
Well, Brian, we will have to leave it there for today, but thank you so much for joining us this morning and thank you so much for sharing all of your insights.
Have a great weekend.
