Bitcoin has been fairly range bound and in New York morning trade clinging to that 64,000 level after trading back and forth between 62 and 66,000 while the industry has been rattled by data breaches as well as heists all this while progress over clarity is delayed and as we are in month 10 of the bear market, some bulls are turning their attention to the four year cycle and forecasting in October bottom feature of the bear cycle.
As time has gone on, Bitcoin actually make it to the average 12th month of the cycle.
Well joining us this morning to weigh in is BryanCourchesne, founder of DAiM Bryan, good morning.
Thank you so much for joining us.
So the average bear market during the 4 year cycle lasts about 12 months and that would seem to place the bottom for the cycle in the autumn during October.
So what are you saying that waiting until then to buy could be a potential mistake.
Yeah, I'm talking to more and more people who don't own Bitcoin right now, who want to, who are waiting till the end of October to buy, because they are saying that they are seeing on social media that that's when the bear market is gonna change and we're gonna go to bull market.
And I think that that could be a mistake, and they're gonna miss out on an opportunity for a much bigger gain in the future, and there's two reasons for that.
One, we don't have the big name bad actors in the space like we did in 2022.
There's no Alex Mashinsky of Celsius, no Sam Bankman Fried of FTX doing malicious things with people's Bitcoin.
And so the space has matured a bit, and that leads to number 2, there's a lot more institutional investors looking at the space, and they too are looking at these cycles, they're looking at the technicals, and they see that the statistical average is ending in October, that bear market is to end, right at that time.
These investors want to be early, they don't wanna be late, they don't want to chase.
See, we think Bitcoin can be 290,000 to 300,000 over the next, you know, 3.5 years.
That's a 4.5x multiple from here.
If these same institutional investors see a big multiple like that, they need to own it now, and they're all right if it goes against them a little bit.
What they don't want to do is have Bitcoin go to 90,000, 100,000, and then be chasing it because it's a smaller multiple then.
And while I have you here, Brian, I do want to get your perspective on SpaceX.
So we have seen a lot of volume sucked up by SpaceX, and we are at the same time seeing several investment houses issue bullish price targets when it comes to SpaceX.
So why do you see Bitcoin as a better investment over the next few years?
Yep, so, uh, SpaceX recently went IPO.
It went to an all-time high price, right around $200 and then over the next 40 days, it sold off 50%.
That's a much more aggressive and violent move downward than Bitcoin's experienced over this bear market.
And so SpaceX is trading a bit like a meme stock.
There's still a lot of shares that are privately locked up.
And if we see here over the same time period that SpaceX has been trading where we chart it here, and Bitcoin over the same time period, Bitcoin's been a bit flat and up while SpaceX has come down.
And the next thing to bring into the conversation to compare it is market cap.
And when we look at the market cap of things in the space and what Bitcoin can do, we'd like to compare it to gold.
So gold's market cap is currently about $30 trillion.
Bitcoin's market cap, $1.3 trillion.
SpaceX market cap, kind of similar, 1.8 trillion.
So like I said earlier, if we're gonna do a 4.5x that would put gold at a massive number, 135 trillion.
We think over the next three years or so that that calms down a little bit, maybe it's 25 to 30% higher.
We look at SpaceX.
SpaceX is about to do that, and maybe Nvidia doesn't go as strong.
It could be one of the largest companies in the world, but again, it's trading a bit like a meme stock.
But Bitcoin, a 4.5X puts it around almost $6 trillion.
That just makes it 1/5 the size of gold, very possible.
And the last thing I'm gonna say is, Bitcoin's been this way.
Let's just look back at 2022.
Back at the low then.
Like we were saying, Bitcoin is gonna do multiples, it could do a 5X.
It ended up doing an 8X return from that low in 2022.
We think that 4.5X from here is very doable over the next several years of Bitcoin.
And Bryan, we have about 60 seconds here, so we don't have a crystal ball.
What do you think the bottom will look like in this cycle?
Yeah, it might actually be a no event bottom.
Uh, back in 2022, I like to say that we saw Genesis, uh, go under and they filed for bankruptcy.
Instead of Bitcoin going down more, it went up by 1000 bucks.
I think we're just gonna, gonna grind our way out of it.
Bitcoin's gonna make a move maybe up 6, 7%, and it's just not gonna look back, and we're just gonna have a no event bottom and people are gonna be caught off guard.
Well, Bryan, we will have to leave it there for today.
So thank you so much for weighing in and thank you so much for sharing your perspective as well as all of your insights.
Thanks for having me.
