Our very dear friend Phil Rosen, chief market strategist at Pro Cap Financial, my man, thank you for being here today.
Thank you for having me, JD.
Dude, these are, these are wild weeks.
We have so much to kind of go through.
We could do an hour-long conversation on today's tape alone.
More broadly, very close to all-time highs for the broader S&P.
Any big surprises jumping out to you as here we are, just another week where at least for a few of these indexes, new record highs.
I think SpaceX's IPO went just about as good as you could have hoped.
You saw a big.
You saw another big pop yesterday.
Today's pretty flat, and that's pretty much what you want, because if you saw an 80% run up in the first couple of days, then you start to get a little worried.
It looks a little frothy.
Retails in there, but I think we're actually doing pretty OK considering that most of the shares are locked up anyway.
So SpaceX, that's the biggest story fluctuating with Microsoft, Amazon.
I'm not too worried about that.
The biggest thing to me is that with the Iran wars peace deal in the works and hopefully Going through the AI trade has unlimited room to run now.
The brakes are off.
We're going to go much higher is what I think, because think about how strongly the bull market ran when we had an Iran conflict going.
And now that it's hopefully off the table, plenty of room to run.
Yes, did it surprise you yesterday that we had the big pop in equities yesterday?
So there had been a very popular running narrative that all this was already kind of priced in or baked into the market.
We get at least the announcement of a framework of a deal and.
Say, you know what, time to rip to the upside.
Everything is always priced in.
The market is way smarter than any of us, and yet it can still surprise us.
That's an amazing thing about markets, and we're seeing small caps lead the way this year.
They've been, they've been so strong, doubling the S&P 500, just about tech is so strong.
The AI trade is still so strong.
Nothing is really that surprising when you zoom out and consider how resilient the bull market was during the Middle East conflict.
And yet here we are still.
At record highs, going to continue to break new record highs.
Oil keeps falling.
Stocks keep going up.
That trend will probably continue, and that's a very classic historical pattern as well.
Today was day one of the two day FOMC policy meeting.
We got Kevin Warsh set to make his highly anticipated debut, replacing the great Jerome Powell.
Any expectations?
Day one jitters, I wonder, for Kevin Warsh.
What are you going to be looking for?
We get the decision at 2 o'clock tomorrow, his first press conference at 2:30.
I'm not expecting any changes tomorrow.
I think Warsch is going to come out and say we're not going to change interest rates.
I think pretty much everyone expects that.
That's what's on the table.
The thing to watch will be whether he comes out and says anything about hikes.
He's not supposed to be in there to be raising interest rates.
Everyone expected him last year to come in, flatten rates to zero, just as President Trump had been calling for.
Now the macro picture is a little more complicated, so I think his hands are tied.
He's not going to be slamming rates down to zero, but if he mentions anything in the Q&A about potential rate hikes, which actually the market is expecting before the end of the year, that could send some jitters into the market.
My man, I need your take on what we're seeing for small caps.
We talk a lot about the technicals, potential for small cap breakouts.
How about general outperformance?
I'm asking you this question on a day when the Russell is down about 9.1%, but here we are, year to day performance almost 18% for the Russell 2000.
What are we seeing there?
If you would bet on small caps at the start of the year, you were a contrarian, but you've done very well by that midway point.
So that's a pretty good sign.
And to me, look, small caps are the most economically sensitive corner of the market, and what's amazing is that they've Continue to run up even as the markets have started to price out rate cuts and price in rate hikes.
So really we should have seen that reflected in small caps going down, but they've continued to go up even as borrowing costs might be getting tighter at the end of the year.
Phil Rosen, uh, happy early Fed Day, my man.
Thank you for being here.
We love Fed Day at the New York Stock Exchange.
Please come back and see us again soon, my man.
Thank you very much.
