And ahead of mid-week trade, let's go to Chicago. FinTech TV correspondent Mark Payton is live from the Cboe trading floor. Good morning, Mark. So today is finally that day, and we are counting down to that 2 p.m. hour. But what are you watching in premarket trade?
Good morning, Remy. We're looking at some green on the board this morning, with S&P 500 futures up about two-tenths of a percent as investors positioned themselves ahead of a major Fed decision later today. And we just got a pretty strong read on the American consumer. Retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, rebounding from July's decline.
So despite higher borrowing costs, consumers are still spending. Another piece of economic data for the Fed to consider today. Now, the VIX remains relatively contained, coming off a close right around 17.2 yesterday. And I think that's notable considering everything markets are dealing with right now.
Elevated interest rates, oil still above $100 a barrel and uncertainty surrounding the Fed. The Russell 2000 closed yesterday around 2,890, down about three-quarters of a percent. Small caps will be especially interesting today because of their sensitivity to interest rates and borrowing costs.
The number that continues to get a lot of attention here is the 10-year Treasury yield. After moving above 5% yesterday, it has backed off a little this morning and is now sitting around 4.98%. So that brings us to the big event today. The Federal Reserve releases its interest rate decision this afternoon, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 1:30 Central Standard Time.
Yeah. And Mark, we all know that today's rate decision is largely priced in. But at the same time, we'll be hearing from the Fed Chair. And we'll also be getting that Summary of Economic Projections. So what could actually surprise the markets this afternoon?
Yeah, it's a great question. The actual rate decision may not be the biggest market mover today. It's what the Fed tells us about what comes next. Traders will be watching the Fed's updated economic projections and the dot plot for clues about where policymakers see rates heading from here. And then all eyes turn to Chair Kevin Warsh at 1:30 Chicago time.
The language he uses around inflation, the labor market and whether the Fed expects to keep tightening could really move things. And that strong retail sales number we just got this morning adds another piece to the puzzle. The consumer is still showing some strength even with borrowing costs elevated.
So watch the 10-year Treasury yield. Watch the VIX and especially watch the Russell 2000. If the Fed comes across more hawkish than expected, those rate-sensitive small caps could feel it pretty quickly. So today, it may not be the rate decision itself that surprises Wall Street. It's the roadmap that that gives us for what comes next.
Well, Mark, the countdown is on to that 2 p.m. Eastern hour. So thank you so much for weighing in on premarket trade this morning, as well as for all of your insights. Mikey.
