And while it is lunchtime here in New York City, it is 11 a.m. in Chicago over at the CBOE. So let's head on over to fintech TV correspondent Mark Payton, who's live from the sea boat trading floor. Hey, Mark. Uh, first and foremost, we are looking at U.S. stocks extending losses. And we're looking at that move higher for Treasury yields.
So get us caught up on the latest action over at Cibo.
Hey, Remy. Yeah. The S&P 500 is down about 4/10 of a percent. And here at the CBOE the VIX is trading around 16.3. And that's interesting because despite oil above $100 interest rates moving higher and all the uncertainty surrounding inflation and the fed volatility is still relatively contained. So we're seeing some caution in the options market, but not the kind of spike in volatility you might expect.
Giving everything investors are dealing with today. And the Russell 2000 is down about 6/10 of a percent. Trading around 29.40. So small caps are also under pressure giving us another indication that the selling isn't limited to just a handful of big names. certainly some caution here in Chicago, but nothing that looks like panic.
At least at this point.
Yeah. In market afternoon trade, we're also paying attention to Treasury yields. So following that announcement from the Treasury we saw that move higher for Treasury yields. So what are prediction markets actually saying about where the Treasury heads from here especially ahead of tomorrow's auctions.
Yeah. With Treasury yields basically just how far they could move from here. So let's start with the ten year. It's pushed up around 4.85% today, its highest level since 2023. So we're getting increasingly close to that key 5% level. And then market traders are looking at just how high it could go before the end of the year.
Right now, they're putting roughly a 40% chance on the ten year, touching 5% before 2027 and about a quarter chance of it reaching 5.2%. Now, this is still a relatively small prediction market. Only a little over 300,000 is traded, so I wouldn't call this a broad market consensus, but it does give us an interesting snapshot of what prediction market traders are pricing in.
And remember, this isn't necessarily where they think the ten year finishes the year, it's whether it touches those levels at any point before 2027. And we're also watching the 30 year Treasury, which has moved above 5.3 today. So there's a newer market looking at how far the 30 year could eventually move back down.
But that market is very thinly traded, so I wouldn't put much weight behind those probabilities just yet. The bigger takeaway is that long term rates are elevated and 5% on the ten year is getting close. And with CPI tomorrow and CPI Friday and the fed next week, Treasury yields could be one of the biggest numbers to watch over the next several days.
Yeah, indeed Mark, there's plenty of that risk coming down the pike. And as you mentioned, we will be watching those inflation figures in terms of producer as well as consumer inflation as we head into the rest of the week. So appreciate your insights this morning. Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you.
