Later today, the Senate will hold a make-or-break vote on the Clarity Act — the bill that would finally give crypto a clear regulatory framework in the US. It needs 60 votes to advance debate. With Republicans holding 53 seats, at least seven Democrats need to cross over. Joining me to discuss this is Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute. Ron, welcome back to the show.
Good timing Johnny. Always going to be on.
With Republicans needing at least seven Democrats to break the filibuster, where do you see the real swing votes sitting right now? Has the updated ethics language actually moved any of them?
Unfortunately, it does not seem that Democrats have moved much on this position. Right now we need 60 votes — that is about seven Democrats to come over, in the hypothetical case that all Republicans do vote to move forward. But based on public statements from key senators involved in negotiations on the Democratic side, the current ethics language does not go far enough. They want different provisions. Overall the votes do not seem to be there at the current moment. But talks are still happening in the Capitol right now — I am heading over there in a second. There is always a chance we could see a surprise or two. But the public statements do not indicate we will have the votes over the threshold. We might even lose some Republicans. There is a lot of jockeying back and forth.
Senate Democrats say the bill does not go far enough to prevent the president and his family from profiting off crypto. Does the new language, including letting state attorney generals enforce ethics rules, actually satisfy that concern?
Republicans did accept a deal of sorts — a counter to Democrats — more based on the state attorney general's ability to sue the president, his family, and elected officials if they are in violation of ethics rules. Democrats pushed back and said that is still not far enough. They want to give more power to the attorney generals, who have gone after the Trump family on a number of issues. So there has been give and take from the administration, but it still seems like it is not enough to get Democrats over the finish line. Though negotiations are still happening right now, so something could change in a couple of hours.
If the vote fails, does the industry actually lose much — or does regulation happen either way through a different door?
Regulation is moving forward regardless. The SEC has put crypto rules out there and the CFTC has done the same. So the status quo will remain or we will see some rulemaking. But legislation is definitely the most solid thing to have. Nothing lasts for decades like legislation — rulemaking can be reversed by a new administration, regardless of party. A lot of folks are saying this is a very rare moment in Congress to put these ground rules in place. Other jurisdictions have done it — the UK, Singapore, even this region. The United States is behind the ball on this one and it is still being bogged down by politics. This is a regulation bill. It is not about any one person or the president himself. It is a regulation that has been demanded for almost a decade. It is a little unfortunate where politics have interrupted it.
You are on the ground in DC — what are your expectations and what are your colleagues saying?
There is a little more optimism among some of my colleagues. I have been involved in this fight for about ten years myself personally, so it is a little frustrating. I give it a 10 to 15% chance to move forward today based on the public statements. We had over two thirds of the House and a lot of Democratic support for this bill a year ago. Crypto is always going to have drama at the last second — so stay glued to Twitter and the TV screens. There is going to be a lot more drama today. But overall, there are other avenues that could potentially revive this if today does not work. The hope is we do not have to go there and we can go forward through amendments today. But buckle up — it can be fun.
Ron Hammond, thanks so much for joining us today.
