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“We’re actually, I think, in a little bit of a stickier situation the longer this shutdown goes in terms of figuring out what is the trajectory for inflation here.” – 01:50

Remy Blaire welcomes Brian Jacobsen, the Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy and financial markets. The episode opens with a positive note as Wall Street is reported to be opening higher, with major stock averages up by at least half a percentage point. Remy highlights the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has risen less than forecasted, and mentions that the U.S. government is now in its 24th day of shutdown. She notes the Senate’s failure to advance a GOP-backed measure aimed at paying federal employees, military members, and contractors who have continued to work without pay.

Brian shares his insights on the inflation report, indicating that core inflation has increased less than anticipated, which reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points in their upcoming meeting on October 28th to 29th. However, he raises concerns about the implications of the ongoing government shutdown on future inflation data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unable to collect data for October.

The conversation shifts to corporate America, where Remy points out that recent earnings reports have provided a mixed picture of industry performance. Brian discusses the reassuring loan quality reported by major banks, despite some isolated concerns regarding specific cases. He contrasts the performance of companies like Tesla and General Motors, noting that while Tesla has seen an increase in sales, its costs have risen significantly, particularly following the elimination of electric vehicle credits. In contrast, Procter & Gamble’s earnings report reveals that the company has successfully pushed prices higher, which may lead to additional pressure on consumers as the holiday season approaches.

Remy then brings up the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping, which Brian describes as critical for U.S.-China trade relations. He expresses cautious optimism about the potential outcomes, suggesting that the tariffs scheduled to increase on November 1st may not reach the worst-case scenario and could instead be set at a more manageable level.

As the segment progresses, Brian emphasizes the importance of monitoring equities, yields, and precious metals as the end of October approaches. He expresses concerns about potential froth in certain market areas and advises investors to focus on growth at a reasonable price rather than growth at any price. Brian predicts some volatility in the markets, suggesting that the S&P 500 may end the year close to its current levels, with a potential entry point around 6,500 in 2026.

“At the end of the day, yesterday, the rally was based on the fact that we have a meeting with China.” – 01:32

Remy Blaire engages in a dynamic discussion with Peter Tuchman, Senior Floor Trader at TradeMas, about the current state of the U.S. stock market. The episode opens with a breakdown of the latest inflation data and its impact on market performance, particularly highlighting the S&P 500’s recent rise, which is largely driven by strong earnings reports from tech stocks.

Remy and Peter reflect on the market’s recovery from a slight dip earlier in the week, which was influenced by concerns over export restrictions. They emphasize the importance of monitoring trade developments, especially in light of ongoing negotiations with China. Peter notes that the market remains sensitive to political narratives, particularly those coming from President Trump, which can lead to significant fluctuations.

As they delve deeper into the economic landscape, Peter discusses the paradox of “bad news being good news,” explaining how weaker economic indicators, such as rising unemployment and high inflation, may actually lead to increased optimism among investors. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Looking ahead to the final week of October, Remy and Peter discuss the upcoming Fed rate decision and the APEC meeting, as well as the anticipated earnings reports from major tech companies. Peter expresses confidence in the resilience of tech stocks, particularly in the quantitative computing sector, despite recent volatility. He highlights the significant interest in semiconductor companies like NVIDIA, which are seen as crucial players in the ongoing AI revolution.

Throughout the conversation, Peter underscores the vast potential within the tech market, pointing out the various levels of demand for GPUs and the monopolization of the supply chain by major players. He concludes by expressing optimism that the upcoming earnings reports from tech companies will meet or exceed expectations, given the strong fundamentals and ongoing demand in the sector.

Remy Blaire engages in a comprehensive discussion with Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist and Portfolio Manager at AlphaSimplex. The segment opens with an overview of the current state of the U.S. stock market, where major stock averages are striving to maintain gains despite recent fluctuations. Remy highlights the midweek slide in stocks, which is attributed to new developments in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly following Treasury Secretary Besson’s confirmation of potential export restrictions on U.S. software to China. This uncertainty is compounded by President Trump’s comments regarding possible restrictions taking effect by November 1st.

As the third quarter earnings season unfolds, Remy notes that 86% of companies have exceeded Wall Street estimates, leading analysts to revise their expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth to over 9% compared to the previous year. Katy joins the conversation to provide her insights on the significance of macroeconomic risks in the current market environment. She emphasizes that these risks are crucial, especially as the market is focused on potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is identified as a key indicator that could influence policy decisions, with Katy expressing concern that the ongoing government shutdown and lack of data could trigger a short-term sell-off if the anticipated rate cuts do not materialize.

The discussion then shifts to the currency markets, where Remy points out that the U.S. dollar index is hovering just above the 99 level. Katy explains that the recent strengthening of the dollar may be a temporary reaction to rate policy uncertainty, but it could also indicate a potential shift in the longer-term trend. She notes that strong U.S. growth numbers are supportive of the dollar, while policy uncertainty could further bolster its value.

Next, the conversation turns to precious metals, particularly gold, which has seen a significant increase of about 50% year-to-date. Remy highlights gold’s recent rise of approximately 2.5% and its role as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar. Katy discusses the implications of the recent reversal in gold prices, suggesting that while gold remains a popular hedge against uncertainty, there may be limits to future demand, particularly in light of rate uncertainty.

“Even though the revenue was strong compared to the last few quarters, then unfortunately that stock is not doing well today because it’s all about expectations.” – 03:31

Remy Blaire engages in a compelling discussion with Gabriela Berrospi, the CEO and Founder of Latino Wall Street. The segment opens with a recap of the recent volatility in the equity markets, following new records for the Dow. Remy notes that the major averages—the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500—are attempting to hold onto session gains amidst the ongoing third quarter earnings season.

Gabriela provides her insights into the current market dynamics, attributing much of the volatility to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade relations with China. She explains the back-and-forth nature of government negotiations, which has created a climate of unpredictability. Gabriela highlights the recent government shutdown, acknowledging that while it has had some temporary positive effects on the markets, the lack of clarity regarding its duration raises concerns.

The conversation shifts to the earnings reports from major companies, including Coca-Cola, 3M, and Tesla. Gabriela emphasizes that despite Tesla’s impressive 12% revenue growth, the stock has not performed well due to unmet analyst expectations. She elaborates on the importance of these expectations, noting that the market’s reaction often hinges on whether companies meet or exceed projections.

As the episode progresses, Remy and Gabriela discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the anticipated 25-point rate cut. Gabriela stresses the need for controlling inflation and the market’s keen interest in economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures set to be released soon. She warns that while rate cuts may be welcomed by investors and consumers alike, they can lead to inflationary consequences, as evidenced by the recent rally in gold prices.