The Einstein of Wall Street Explains Today’s Market Pullback

Peter Tuchman joins us now.

The Einstein of Wall Street.

All of this, I mean, we've got a lot of green on the board, a lot of red, but it comes after two monster days, 2 monster days.

And this morning, you know, it doesn't feel like any bad news came out that made this happen.

It almost just seemed like there was fatigue on the buy side, right?

We've had a major rally for more than 2 days, right?

And you know we've navigated our way through a lot of it.

And look, if you think about it, we've had a couple of companies where earnings were a little bit disappointing and some that weren't that disappointing, but the market.

Responded negatively and the market is not very forgiving when they decide they want out of a stock.

We're in a different mode here, right?

In the old days when earnings you wanted to get out of a trade or get out of a position or a purchase, whether you're a hedge fund or a home office or whatever, you would usually take some time to do it.

Now the market is in such a state where it's literally I hit a buy button when I want to buy them and I hit a sell button when I want to sell them, and it's not forgiving.

It's irrational enthusiasm on one side.

And aggressive selling on the other.

And so you saw that with AMD and a number of other names and SpaceX.

SpaceX missed, right?

And it's had a run and obviously there's been a lot of dark cloud over that spaceship for a little while.

I'm not allowed to talk about individual stocks, but it feels the way that market sold off.

It's just like, you know what, the buyers just got a little bit tired.

Maybe they were too aggressive because when the market rallies the way this has for 2 days, you don't want to miss it.

You feel like it's never another day.

The old.

Used to say there's never another down day on Wall Street.

That's what it's felt like for about a day and a half now.

And so one doesn't want to, and then suddenly it's like, oh no, I've run out of stock.

I'm getting a little tired.

It wasn't even as if a big sell side came in.

It just felt like the buyers ran out of a little ammo and they just got a little fatigued, and so, you know, and at one point the buyers just backed off and pulled away.

So Peter, I, I've been on vacation.

I've been enjoying my time on that.

While you were on vacation, yes, we were all working.

Yes, and thank you all for working.

I've been enjoying my time on a fishing boat on a lake in northern Minnesota, but when I left for my vacation, West Texas and Brent, these oil benchmarks, they were a lot higher.

We really saw them come in.

We saw the White House say, hey, we're getting closer to terms with Iran.

To be fair, they've said that before.

But what did you see the last few days about a reminder of where investors are and how they are thinking about the conflict in the Middle East?

OK, so he also came out and said, I was about to put on the biggest attack in the history of war, and as of today I've decided I'm not going to do that, right?

It's sort of a funny comment, but he said it and he's never said that before, so it was a new one, right?

Maybe it was chat GBT.

I'm not really sure, but that's sort of like it was almost like, you know, whether people are taking.

It seriously and then the whole conflict we've seen this before where the market just disengages the conflict.

We realize that it'll ratify itself when it happens, right?

But we're not getting an edge from the information.

And so why don't we just buy stocks on the lifeblood of the market, which are earnings, and the earnings have been good, right?

85% of the S&P that has reported has Well, that's, that's significant, especially coming out of a quarter that we were in the middle of a war in, right?

So you would have thought, right, that it would have not responded as well, you know, Banks came out of the gate doing well.

I found that curious because I was saying, but it, it was a matter of a lot of deals happen.

SpaceX deal happened, stuff like that.

So I think at the end of the day sometimes when you see this kind of thing happen, it's that the market disengages that breaking news story, right?

And then it goes back.

Let's realize too we've been trading in the high 90s.

The inflationary implications of that are major and when you sort of take that Gulf of Hormuz story off the table and oil comes in significantly, we were down 8% 1 day, 7%.

One day and you're in the 80s once again, we actually touched 6739, which was a pre-war low a couple of weeks ago.

We bounced off it technically, but when you have that trade happening and you have that significant component of the market which is oil versus the Dow, oil versus S&P, it can be, it's a huge thing.

So that kind of has overpowered everything and look.

You see that pullback.

You have the market rallied the way this one did.

Yes, we're about out of time, but quickly if I can get your take, we're under 100 days out from the midterm elections.

Historically, the Stock Trader's Almanac tells us this is a choppy part of the 4 year cycle, the run up to a midterm election.

There's so much up in the air, right?

And yet we've seen investors shake off a lot of these historical patterns.

What will you be looking for in the next few weeks as Q3 continues?

You know what I think.

It'll really depend, you know, was today that selloff, the break of the massive rally.

What you're talking about was that that was what we saw.

Was it the beginning of the chopiness?

You know, it's hard to say.

There's so many components that affect this market, whether it's tariffs.

There was a bunch of tariff talk again today.

There's war talk.

There's oil talk.

There's record high talk.

There's guidance in earnings talk.

So many components.

Which one is the market going to grab a hold of and sink its teeth into?

So it's hard for me to even predict what's going to happen.

If they, I can tell you what's going to be if they grab onto each one of those things.

If it's about the earnings, the market's going to rally.

If it's about the midterms, I don't really know how the market's going to react.

It'll depend on Mr.

Trump's reaction to that, right?

If he starts putting a lot of energy, you know, trying not to.

Lose the midterms.

Well, that's going to put on a whole another twist to the market as well.

Yes, that's why we keep each one of these things has a different cause and effect that it's going to be in the market, whichever the market decides to get.

So that's why we keep notifications set for his posts on social media.

100%.

The president tweets and the markets move immediately.

I'm always so know that in the old days a president first of all had very much less interaction with markets than this one does.

And secondly, uh, statements that had economic effect on the markets and whatever happened before the open, after the close, or at a designated news conference.

It didn't happen at a 3 a.m. tweet.

That was the way of the rule.

That was the rule.

I have a hard time imagining William Howard Taft would be out there caring too much about the S&P 5.

I got, I got to roll.

I'm always so grateful for your time, my man.

We'll talk to you.

Let's go in 5.

Let's go.