JD Durkin: Let’s bring in the great Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets, also a CNBC contributor, also a very dear friend of mine. We’ll talk a lot more coming up in just a few minutes about your recollections on this day, being a part of this community for a long time. But first, let’s talk Fed. Let’s talk some price action. Let’s talk some markets.
We got that CPI print today. We didn’t know what investors would have in store, but was this your expectation, to be up 9 of 11 at the end?
Jay Woods: No, it wasn’t. We’ve had a rocky week. This is our first day up for the S&P 500. Finished down for the week. The story had been oil, and that’s the biggest inflationary concern because that’s where it affects us.
And it’s not just oil, it’s diesel. Diesel at an all-time high, $2 a gallon, impacting the transports. And it’s going to trickle down to who? Us, the consumer. So inflation is still top of mind. But that is the transitory inflation, or at least the way the politicians are trying to say, “Hey, the war is going to end after the election. Oil is going to come down immediately, and it’s going to drop precipitously.”
The market’s not buying it anymore. Now we have to find out what the Fed is thinking. After the CPI data came in, Warsh has one little granite to hold on to, that core number came in right in line. So he can say, “Okay, it’s still trending the right way,” which is what he said at Jackson Hole.
But everything else is going the wrong way. The job market’s robust. We cut rates in the first place to make sure those job numbers would get back under control. They have. We’re adding jobs. The economy’s going well there. But now the inflationary side of the picture, not so rosy.
Three dissents last vote. So he knows he’s got three people coming into this meeting and now data going against him. So he’s between a rock and a hard place. That hard place is the White House. The president, very vocal. Now he’s going to have a credibility issue if he decides to keep rates in line.
So it’s going to be very fascinating to see how he navigates between his own committee, current inflationary concerns, because he has a little wiggle room, not much, and then, of course, the White House. Powell didn’t do it. He never buckled. But will Warsh? So lots of drama, soap opera-esque, if you will. And we love Fed Day.
JD Durkin: I was going to have the “Days of Our Lives.” We did get from Neel Kashkari and a few others dissenting with the rest of the committee.
Jay Woods: Yeah, and that can be a continuation Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
JD Durkin: Oh, without question.
Jay Woods: And there’s not much on the way of the earnings front. So everything now is going to be focused on what? On the Fed. We’re in that September lull, and we talk about September stats. And you get my newsletter this week. The 11th day of September, random but interesting, here you go, is when we tend to peak, and then we go down historically 0.91% on average, going back 100 years in September.
It’s one of those quagmires. But what could be the reason we go down again this September? The 11th day is Fed Day.
JD Durkin: Oh, my.
Jay Woods: And then what can lift us up? Earnings has been the catalyst. We have none until JPMorgan reports on the 13th. So lots of interesting stuff for us to watch.
JD Durkin: I need a clip of this for my newsletter this week.
Jay Woods: Yeah, that was really good. I just did it right here.
JD Durkin: I need the video version. What do you expect? The best newsletter in the biz comes out every Sunday, gets you ready for the week ahead. Please subscribe.
Okay, you and I, we talked earlier today. You were generous enough to join me on my other show. You’re a longtime veteran of the floor.
Jay Woods: Yep.
JD Durkin: Here we are, 25 years. Talk to me about what this day in particular means to you, and take this wherever you want, because I know how deeply meaningful this is to you and the community. You’re the perfect person to talk to.
Jay Woods: Community. Let’s go with that word that you just threw out there so nicely. That’s what it was about. It was about the people that got together that day in unison to just go home and then come back to work.
You know, the shock and the fact that we lost lives, that we were in danger. I mean, I don’t look at it like we were in the cloud. Yes. But, you know, looking back on it, how many people have now lost their lives because of cancers that were caused by, you know, just coming to work in this area?
It’s a somber day. It’s a day of reflection, but it’s a great place to come because that was a day where, and I told you this before, when we got through it, I believe in my heart it was that bell and this building that kick-started the recovery.
No more flights, no Broadway shows, no sports, no Leno and Letterman. Al said, “Do you know who they are?” They were late-night TV hosts. They didn’t know how to make people laugh. They were worried.
But under Dick Grasso’s leadership, he was here today and got a big hug from him. That was a highlight of my day. And the 5,000 people that were going to come to work no matter what, we reopened. And that bell, that freedom ring, was a sign that, look, you knocked us down, but we came back. And we came back three blocks from the epicenter, with a smoldering pile and recovery workers hoping to find loved ones, hoping to find people still five, six days later.
You know, there was hope that maybe we could find someone in that pile, and unfortunately, we didn’t. So this place, this day, has a lot of memories that you wish you could forget. But we like to reflect, and I’m a positive person. I reflect on the coming back and remember those that we lost, and that’s where it’s somber.
JD Durkin: Yeah. And I’m incredibly grateful for your time, for coming in. You joined me for a few interviews here today, and you stuck around late into the close to join us here on Taking Stock. And you’re always welcome, especially for today. I really appreciate it.
Jay Woods: I appreciate you. A lot of green on the board. Green reminds me of my favorite football team. It is football season this week. I have to do this to him every single time. And I look forward to some witty banter and less somber talk the next time I’m on.
JD Durkin: Yeah, absolutely. Nice weekend of football to look forward to here. All the best to you, my man, today and every day. Grateful for your time.
Jay Woods: Thank you.
JD Durkin: We’ll talk again soon.
