Eric Criscuolo, market strategist at the New York Stock Exchange, joins Wall Street to Mena to unpack a market pulled in multiple directions. With the Iran ceasefire driving oil prices lower, he explains why that could ease inflation and bring Treasury yields down, a combination that is broadly positive for equities. But the AI trade is complicating the picture: hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet are pulling back from recent highs, software remains under pressure, and even Nvidia is selling off. The only bright spot in tech right now is memory chip names like Micron, which just posted a blockbuster quarter. Meanwhile, the Fed’s new chair is putting everything under the microscope, including how inflation is measured, keeping rate cut hopes on hold. Looking ahead, Criscuolo flags OpenAI’s IPO delay to 2027, the Russell index reconstitution, and next week’s nonfarm payrolls as the key events to watch.
Get the latest news and updates on FINTECH.TV
From Hormuz to the Nasdaq: NYSE Strategist Eric Criscuolo on Oil, AI and What’s Moving Markets
While global markets are reacting to a shifting geopolitical backdrop, renewed focus is returning to the Gulf as tensions around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the oil supply dynamic come back to the forefront. How is geopolitics driving prices today — and what does it signal looking ahead? We're also watching what AI and technology are doing to markets right now. Joining us is Eric Criscuolo, market strategist at the New York Stock Exchange. Eric, thanks so much for joining us. Always good to have you.
Always a pleasure. So let's talk about the geopolitical tension. How is that driving the market this week — and specifically today? There's been so much on-again, off-again movement around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
The market got more or less what it wanted a couple of weeks ago with the ceasefire agreement — however you want to frame it. That was what the market had been positioning for. And we've seen the ramifications of that in oil prices coming down significantly. There are blips here and there based on developments in the Strait, but by and large oil is coming in. That should help Treasury yields come in as well — lower oil, lower inflation, lower yields. Those two things happening simultaneously are generally good for equities. But there's a lot happening in the equity market on its own around the AI trade, so everything is bleeding into each other right now.
I definitely want to get into AI, chips and technology. It's almost a tale of two markets — the Dow is at a record while the Nasdaq is in the red. Apple is down around 5%, Microsoft off nearly 4%. Valuations are being pressured by chip costs. And then Micron just posted this blockbuster quarter. Is this an AI memory boom turning into a tax on the rest of big tech, or is this a crack in the market?
You framed it perfectly. The hyperscalers — Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, the companies building enormous data centers and buying all these chips — are actually not performing well. Those mega-cap tech names are off ten to fifteen percent from recent highs. Software names are still under pressure too. We thought they were getting a bid a couple of weeks ago, but that reversed. Software is still being weighed down by the fear that AI could disrupt its entire business model. The only names really standing out in tech right now are the memory chip suppliers — Micron being the obvious example. Even Nvidia, the king of GPUs, is selling off. So it's really only memory working in tech right now. What's helping the broader market is a rotation out of tech into sectors that have lagged — healthcare in particular has seen strong performance recently after years of underperforming, with funds reallocating out of tech and into those areas.
Let's talk inflation and the Fed. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in roughly as expected earlier this week — running hot, but markets seemed almost relieved. Is inflation still too high to bring under control, and what does it mean for the Fed's next move?
That's a huge question mark, especially with a new Fed chair who — if you listened to his first press conference — essentially said he wants to take a completely fresh look at everything: what data they're using, how they're measuring things, how they're operating. His now-famous line is "I have a task force for that." He's even discussed changing how the Fed measures inflation — things like trimmed mean estimates, basically rethinking the model entirely. That said, prices are still elevated no matter how you look at it. Inflation is still above the Fed's target. So if they're not raising rates, they're probably holding where they are rather than cutting. The market is trying to figure out if that analysis holds.
It's Friday — big relief all around. What are you watching closely today and into next week?
One of the bigger news events in the last 24 hours was the New York Times reporting that OpenAI is likely to delay its IPO push to 2027. Everyone had been expecting a possible year-end listing — that's now off the table, and it's weighing on the tech sector. SoftBank was down big given how closely tied they are to OpenAI. So tech now has to deal with that on top of everything else. Is this further evidence that the AI trade is pulling back? We'll be watching how tech and other sectors respond as we head into the close — which is also a major Russell index reconstitution day, one of the biggest rebalances in the equity universe. Huge volumes expected at the close. And then next week, the biggest data point will be nonfarm payrolls — the monthly labor number. That will set the tone heading into a thankfully shortened holiday week with July 4th.
Exactly — and I think everyone is going to be taking full advantage of that. Eric, thanks so much for joining us. Always a pleasure having you here on Fintech TV.
Always a pleasure. Thank you.