All right and welcome back.
So we are here with Eric Criscuolo, a market strategist at the New York Stock Exchange.
We have a lot to talk to, a lot to get through, so we are excited to have Eric here on with us.
Eric, thanks for joining us.
It's early in the morning, but we have a big day here at the markets, you know, they're waking up a lot of momentum, a lot of different things going on.
So first and foremost, the thing that is on everyone's mind is SpaceX.
So a list.
This size, IPO this size, what does it mean for the market?
Let's talk about that first.
Yeah, well, it's obviously been on the minds of the market for a while, you know, they, they filed, um, to list their IPO a long time ago.
Everyone knows the company, right?
Huge company.
Um, so, you know, there's a lot of excitement just in general in the market.
Um, you know, IPOs are the lifeblood of, of, of the capital markets for equities anyway.
Um, so we love to see.
IPOs come in, you know, big, small, um, across industries.
It's always just good for these IPOs to kind of regenerate, regenerate, rejuvenate, um, the flow of capital, basically, within the system.
So, you know, generally, everyone's excited, um, And, uh, you know, but, but, you know, everyone's kind of been prepared for this for a while, so it's not out of the blue, uh, you know, positions possibly have been kind of, um, uh, moved around to prepare, to prepare for this, for this, uh, day.
You saw some tech weakness recently.
Some of that weakness was attributed maybe to some uh of these funds trying to make room for, for the IPO that's coming.
So Eric, for the, for the everyday investor that's watching us who they can't get the whole IPO price on it first day, uh, what are your, what's your, uh, talk with them?
Like what would you tell them regarding today and just how the market's gonna kind of roll out today?
Um, it's a big question mark, unfortunately.
I would love to tell you exactly what's gonna happen.
I have no idea.
With any of these IPOs, um, you know, so these, the bankers price the stock the night before, which means that the, the big investors give them the money, then they get the shares, um, and then they wait, you know, overnight, and then the stock will open the next day, being today, um, for regular trading.
And that's when the public basically gets to, uh, put their buy and sell offers in and, um, see where the market, you know, will.
Where that creates the market, whether it's 20% higher or 10% lower, or 100% higher.
So all those orders, all that interest comes together today.
Um, usually it's a little bit chaotic, um, but, you know, after a while, the stock will settle out and you'll see where the true kind of quote price is.
All right, so let's talk a little bit beyond SpaceX.
So overall, what's been the mood on the floor this morning as we head into the open because we have SpaceX, but we also have geopolitical situation going on.
So kind of what's been, what's been the feel overall?
Yeah, um, a lot of news back and forth talking about the geopolitics, you know, um, yesterday we saw a big move with markets, a big reversal in markets when President Trump came out and said, uh, he's not gonna bomb Iran.
He said that a lot, but he said he's not gonna bomb Iran.
Um, coming up, and he also said that there was a framework for an agreement.
Um, with Iran that still has some legs to go through, still has some, some, some, uh, pieces to be, to be confirmed.
But, um, it looks like this might be the most tangible evidence we have of something happening good in the Middle East with Iran.
Um, and markets have been looking at that for a while.
They have wanted an off-ramp.
They don't wanna have the US and Iran anymore.
They want the situation done with.
Um, and so, that's why you saw that pop yesterday of where, um, everything just kind of ripped right after.
President Trump said it looks like this agreement is going forward, so we'll see what happens because we've heard it before, but, um, that just, it just gave everything a bid, um, from large caps to small caps.
So asides Iran, I know we've also inflation top of mind for everyone.
Obviously there's some comments made yesterday.
President said some stuff regarding inflation.
So inflation is still sticky, and the markets have been waiting on the Fed to kind of for what it feels like forever at this point.
So let's talk about that.
I mean, are we any close to a rate cut?
Kind of what's your indication on that?
I mean, inflation, obviously, it's hitting everyone this summer.
I mean, we can all see it through gas prices, through just like everyday necessity here in the states.
So let's talk about inflation a little bit more.
Yeah, it's still elevated.
Uh, it's, it's definitely not, you know, moving substantially higher right now, um, which is obviously a good thing, but it's certainly not where the Fed normally wants it, which is about the 2% level.
It's, it's still well above that.
Um, so the market is basically priced in about a half of a rate increase, uh, over the year, right?
So we're at about, we were at about 25 basis points of a rate increase in by December.
Now we're a little below that given, given yesterday's moves.
So the market still expects rates to be relatively high going forward.
The big thing though with that is we have a new Fed chair that'll um be, uh, have his new, his, his, his first meeting, his first press conference next week, where the Fed will decide on their rate decision.
Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates where they are, but we wanna hear what this, this new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh has to say, where his thoughts are.
All right, so we've talked about energy, we've talked about SpaceX.
AI has also been top of mind.
So, are you starting to see any other rotation in regards to money moving to any parts of the market, or is that kind of been the main focus this week?
Yeah, no, we, we, we saw tech kind of stumble a little bit or at least take a pause from the incredible run that it's had, um, you know, memory stocks, AI names, everything has had this blistering run higher, um, the past couple of weeks, uh, even into this week.
We saw money kind of, kind of, um, come out a little bit of those sectors, move into things like healthcare, move into things like, you know, consumer staples, maybe a little bit more defensive, um, other names that have lagged the markets, you know, some financials saw, saw some, uh, some good performance coming in.
So we definitely saw some rotation out of those high-flying names.
Um, the question is, you know, does that continue?
Or does that kind of pause, stop, and then the market just goes back to flowing back into the AINAs?
All right, so we'll see a lot of things.
There's a lot of things going on, going out, a lot of, especially in the tech sector.
I mean, today's gonna be a big day, so it's gonna be exciting to see what happens, how things kind of play out, how things are out, but it's, uh, it's a lot, a lot, a lot going on here.
There is a lot going on, yeah.
So then we have the Knicks, we have the World Cup.
Is it, is it, it's chaos all over the place, chaos, but isn't crazy.
But you know what, I think, uh, we'll see this weekend, Knicks.
Let's, let's go, and then from there, World Cup.
So I don't know, big, I'm with you, yeah.
So see you back next week to talk about all this.
Love that.
Uh, love to be here.
See you there.
All right, so definitely, uh, again, we're Eric, market strategist here at the New York Stock Exchange and of course, uh, we're gonna take a short break, so don't move anywhere and stay with us.
