New York morning trade, we're looking at the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 soaring by 0.5% at the same time, the market is caught in a tug of war.
On one hand we are seeing major geopolitical relief with oil prices plunging back to pre-war levels and on the other hand, the AI rally is showing some serious growing pains.
But in New York morning trade, we are looking at micron shares rallying now.
Micron technology. drop a massive earnings and shattered Wall Street estimates thanks to explosive demand for AI memory chips and is also surging after the chip maker nearly doubled its revenue projection for business outside of smartphones as it looks to cash in on the AI as for the US dollar we're looking at it steam rolling markets on the back of Fed rate hike expectations and we are seeing Bitcoin lower and gold.
Barely recovering that $4000 level.
We'll join us now to make sense of this volatility is Patrick Healy, president and CIO at Caliber Financial Partners.
Great to have you here.
Thank you so much for joining me.
Good to be back.
Well, we continue to see a lot of volatility as we wrap up the first half of 2026.
So first, given the fact that we're looking at this rally in terms of Micron and this does come on the heels of that sell-off we saw earlier this week.
And that PC figure.
What do you make of what's moving markets today?
Well, it's definitely Micron's earnings.
The number was a blowout number and a reminder to the AI naysayers that we're still early in this in this build out and there's going to be corrections, of course we've seen that over the last couple of weeks, but a number like last night is very reassuring.
You're seeing that reflected in the market this morning.
Yes, and as you mentioned those. numbers I had to do a double take but also look back at a one year chart as well as year to date chart and looking at that 2052 week range for the price of micron.
It's really staggering to see how much it has grown so far.
But as you mentioned there are a lot of questions about where in artificial intelligence that one should be investigated within the ecosystem.
So what are you concerned about right now?
So I'm concerned a little bit about how much money is being spent and where the money is going to come from.
One of the things we're seeing a lot, the big companies like Google and Meta are doing capital raises to pay for that AI spend, and there's some forecasts that a lot of the Wall Street banks are going to have to do debt offerings for some of these firms as well because of the massive amount of money that needs to be spent. and I do want to move on to today's economic data releases of course the inflation figures the PCE overshadowing Q1 GDP figures as well as jobless claims and even durable goods.
But what do you make of the changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve and what do you expect to see when it comes to interest rates now?
Yes, so I think one of the most interesting things that came out of the last Fed meeting was that they're not going to be issuing future guidance, which I think is a change from the last Fed administration.
We'll see how that plays out and how the market digests that in terms of the inflation number this morning.
Yes, it remains elevated, but it was in line with what expectations were and slightly lower on the month to month, and that's why you're seeing it not cut into the rally this morning.
And when we take a step back and look at the volatility, obviously it has affected not just equity but other asset classes as well.
So we're looking at the US dollar this morning and keeping an eye on foreign exchange fluctuations, not to mention what's going on in terms of commodities.
But when it comes to the US currency, what do you make of where we are right now and heading into the second half?
What are your expectations?
Yes, the dollar.
The default currency, reserve currency, and I think that will continue.
We're the superpower.
We're the strongest economy.
Our markets are trading extremely well, and despite what's going on in the Middle East, you know, the US dollar is the reserve currency, and I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
Yes, and you mentioned the conflict in the Middle East.
We continue to monitor what's happening in terms of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and what this means for oil prices.
And energy prices and how this all trickles down to the supply chain as well as pain at the pump.
So do you expect Americans to see relief as we head into the second half?
I do.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open and the conflict draws to a conclusion.
If you get in these backtracks and get spikes in oil prices, then it could persist for a while.
But we're starting to see oil prices come down, as you noted earlier.
It will.
A little bit of time for that to filter through to the gas pumps and other consumer goods, but I think that's something that's giving the Fed some ease to not have to raise rates later in the year unless something dramatically changes.
Yes, absolutely, because when we're looking at the US economy as a whole and the impact that the Middle East conflict has had on the American economy, there are also second order effects.
So I do want to get your take as we Head into the second half about what we've seen so far in terms of IPOs and the other mega IPOs that are coming down the pike.
So we had SpaceX launch the biggest IPO ever on record, and we're also trying to digest what's going to happen in terms of ADRs for SK Heinix.
But here in the US we're paying attention to anthropic open AI.
So what does this mean for the retail investor, but also for liquidity overall in capital markets.
Really good question.
So what you've seen with SpaceX, one, it was a good IPO debut.
I think by any measurable standard it was successful, but it did suck a lot of capital out of other sectors of the markets in order for people to take advantage of that.
We've seen SpaceX back off of that initial debut.
We'll see where it trades from here, but I expect something on a slightly smaller scale with Anthropic and OpenAI later in the year when they start to get ready to go.
And finally, before I let you go, when it comes to price targets, what are you watching and why?
So I'll touch on crypto because that's something we didn't cover today.
I think it's largely been a sideways trade.
I think there's a lot of pressure on micro strategy, the Bitcoin.
Treasury, and I think there are a lot of short sellers that are trying to attack that.
If we can get past the Clarity Act, one of the things that you cover a lot, and the Senate is likely going to rule on that in July hopefully and get it in front of the House and then the President's desk, if we can get that passed, I think Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a lot of the cryptos are going to trade much higher despite a lot of the negative pressure that they're currently experiencing.
Well, Patrick, always great having you on the show.
Thank you so much for joining us live here at the New York Stock Exchange today.
My pleasure.
Thank you.
