Interviewer: Well, in New York morning trade, we're looking at Bitcoin hovering right below the 80,000 level, and as a new trading week gets underway, Bitcoin did fall below that 80,000 level, and traders have been rotating capital into big tech AI, and, uh, this does come ahead of Wednesday's crucial Federal Reserve policy decision. Meanwhile, we're keeping an eye on falling crude oil as well as sharp outflows from US spot ETFs, and that has been weighing on digital assets, pushing tokens as well as crypto equities lower as we kick off the week. Meanwhile, corporate buyer Strategy Inc. pausing its Bitcoin purchases for the first time in 5 weeks. Joining us here at the New York Stock Exchange to break down what this macro pullback means for the market is Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. Ryan, great to have you here. Thank you so much for joining me.
Ryan Rasmussen: Great to be here. Thank you.
Interviewer: Well, we are keeping a close eye on crypto prices, but we have to keep in mind that there are a lot of forces at play right now, especially given the fact that we're getting a slew of earnings out from big tech and of course it's the Fed meeting with the announcement tomorrow. So what are we seeing when it comes to price action?
Ryan Rasmussen: I think we're seeing a lot of volatility right now. It's certainly uncertain times when it comes to the macro environment, geopolitics, Fed. What are they going to do? And I think it's a lot of volatility that we've seen throughout the summer kind of going into the fall. Our expectation is that we're going to continue to see volatility through the midterms, even with this Anthropic IPO coming up and the Fed decisions. I think November is setting up to be a pretty volatile month, but I think it's a dip, then rip scenario, and we think December is going to be a very strong period.
Interviewer: Yes, and I think volatility has been the key word for 2026, and volatility isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially when it comes to markets and trading, because there are opportunities as well as risks, but when you're looking at the hard data when it comes to crypto as well as digital assets, what is it telling you right now?
Ryan Rasmussen: I think that's exactly right. This period for crypto, where we've been in a bear market now for nearly a year, I think opens up a lot of really interesting opportunities for investors who have been sidelined or maybe got washed out earlier this year. So I think the opportunities set in this volatile time is great when it comes to all crypto assets. I think we're seeing certain projects are doing really well when you come to the key factors like revenue growth and really generating fees. Like those metrics you mentioned are becoming increasingly important in the crypto industry, and so Hyperliquid and Near and other projects that are generating significant revenue from user activity like trading, lending and borrowing are really being rewarded by investors right now, while other projects that are seeing their metrics slip are not being rewarded. So I think we're entering a different period for crypto where fundamentals really matter more.
Interviewer: And speaking of fundamentals, all of us are keeping a close eye on central banks, in particular the Federal Reserve, especially given that there are expectations for Fed chair Kevin Warsh. But when it comes to the longer-term outlook for macro, what is your forecast and why?
Ryan Rasmussen: I think the long-term outlook for macro is that we're going to continue to see more volatility going forward than historically, but I think really the market is overthinking it. The long-term thesis, at least for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, is that we're going to continue to see fiat debasement. There's nothing stopping $40 trillion in debt and $2 trillion budget deficits, and so when you think about that and the likelihood of Fed rate hikes versus cuts, I think that we're headed to a lower, lower interest rate environment in the future. We might see some volatility here until the war shakes out, but I do think that the macro environment will get less uncertain going forward once we get through these AI IPOs, once we get through the war in Iran, these will-they, won't-they with the Fed decisions, and then the long-term thesis for macro in our opinion is that we're going to continue to see this move towards the debasement trade, which will drive up demand for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold. We think we'll continue to see the rise of tokenization and stablecoins with the Genius Act coming into effect early next year. All of those things to us indicate that there's a lot of demand for crypto assets. A lot of investors are currently sidelined, so we think they'll start adding crypto to their portfolio over the long term, and macro will be a tailwind to that.
Interviewer: And of course while I have you here, you're the head of research, so I'm sure that you have a technical outlook as well when it comes to Bitcoin. What's your perspective?
Ryan Rasmussen: Yes, well, the signals from the on-chain perspective or the technicals behind Bitcoin really signal that we've bottomed out for this cycle in terms of the bear market. The moving averages, all of the other metrics around long-term holders versus short-term holders really point in Bitcoin's favor that we're exiting one of these historic crypto winters, and this four-year cycle is just getting restarted. What we've historically seen is that exiting crypto winter, it's been a really great time to enter the Bitcoin environment for the next three years plus, so we hear a lot of investors worrying about the four-year cycle, worrying if this is the right time to enter. I think the volatility and the drawdowns from all-time highs that we've experienced over the past year are a great signal that we're really headed to a period of up and to the right for Bitcoin, and we think other crypto assets will follow.
Interviewer: And finally, before I let you go, we have about 60 seconds here, so I do want to get your take on what we're seeing when it comes to treasury accumulation, especially since Strategy did pause, but when it comes to crypto equities, give us your take.
Ryan Rasmussen: I think crypto equities is such a wide range of businesses. Digital asset treasury companies are certainly playing a less important role today than they did a year ago or two years ago, but they still play an important role, and we're starting to see that span out across other assets beyond Bitcoin like Near and Hyperliquid. When it comes to other crypto equities, whether it's Coinbase or Robinhood or tokenization platforms like Securitize and Figure, we're really optimistic on the outlook for those businesses. I think they're severely undervalued relative to competitors and that the tokenization and stablecoin boom are going to push those companies much, much higher.
Interviewer: And because you mentioned tokenization as well as stablecoins and the Genius Act, what do you think will move the markets when it comes to the digital asset space as we head into the new year?
Ryan Rasmussen: I think we're headed to a stablecoin boom once the Genius Act goes into effect next year. I think we're going to go from $300 billion in stablecoins to $3 trillion in stablecoins over the next five years. I think tokenization is going to be a massive tailwind to many publicly traded crypto companies and underlying crypto networks like Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid, and Near. So I think stablecoins and tokenization are a massive trend and catalysts going forward.
Interviewer: Well Ryan, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining us live here at the New York Stock Exchange today and thank you so much for all of your insights.
Ryan Rasmussen: Yes, thanks for having me. Thank you.
