Remy Blaire: And it is lunchtime here, but it is 11 a.m. in Chicago at Cboe.
So we are joined by FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton, who's live on the trading floor from Cboe.
Hey, Mark. So get us caught up on the latest trading action over at Cboe.
Mark Payton: Hey, Remy.
We're still seeing some pressure on stocks. But what's interesting here at Cboe is volatility remains pretty contained.
The S&P 500 is down slightly, and the Russell 2000 is also trading lower. But the VIX is sitting around 16. So there's definitely some caution out there, but we're not seeing the kind of move that would suggest investors are really nervous.
The other big number we continue to watch is, of course, the 10-year Treasury yield, right around 5.16% right now.
We've also gotten some pretty strong economic data this morning, as you just mentioned. So initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, below the 201,000 expected.
And then we got new home sales, up 6.4% from July, above expectations.
So right now, traders are trying to figure out what higher rates and a still pretty resilient economy could mean for the Fed going forward.
Remy Blaire: Yeah. And Mark, at this noon hour, of course, we're keeping a close eye on the markets, but we're also keeping another eye on the nation's capital.
So we are counting down to the dinner this evening between China's President Xi and President Trump.
We all know that tech leaders as well as leaders from the major financial institutions will be attending.
So what are prediction markets expecting to come out from this gathering today as the summit unfolds?
Mark Payton: Yeah, this is an interesting one because traders are pretty confident something eventually gets done.
So right now, traders are putting about a 94% chance on the U.S. and China reaching a tariff agreement by the end of the year.
And even if you move that deadline up, they're putting the odds of an agreement by the end of October at about 90%.
There has already been nearly $300,000 traded on this market.
And there's an important distinction here. This isn't simply asking whether Trump and Xi have a good meeting today or come out and say the talks are productive.
For this market to resolve "Yes," there actually needs to be an official mutual agreement involving tariffs between the U.S. and China.
And there's plenty on the table today: tariffs, U.S. agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, rare earth minerals and, of course, AI.
So Polymarket traders clearly think the two sides ultimately get something done.
Now the question is whether anything that comes out of today's meeting moves those odds. And we'll be watching that number very carefully, Remy.
Remy Blaire: Yeah, indeed. Mark, to be a fly on that wall during that dinner.
But you and I will be watching to see how the market reacts overnight.
So thank you so much for joining us today.
Mark Payton: Thank you.
