Eric Criscuolo, market strategist down here on the trading floor of the big board, for his take on today's tape and a lot more.
Thanks for being here.
Always a pleasure.
So, so first of all, you know this is an interesting week because we always like to go through and look at the calendar, the potential catalysts.
We are very light on earnings this week.
We are very light on economic data, maybe a little bit of Fed speak.
What historically do you look for in a week like this when we don't have those big picture issues to kind of attach a narrative directly onto?
Yes, it's kind of interesting to just kind of watch what has worked really well going into that week that you're asking about and then seeing how those stocks react, you know.
Is there some profit taking during that week?
Is there some type of rotation?
From the winners to the losers, or is it just, you know, continuing the trend that you're seeing?
So you just want to see if anything is kind of shifting while there's kind of, you know, while there's not a lot of noise in the market.
You want to see if things are still trending or if things are kind of changing, as there's nothing to kind of keep the market's attention on.
Chips bouncing back today.
It's been a shaky couple of weeks here for the semiconductors.
What do you think that signals in terms of the broader market?
We do have a pretty sizable and notable bounce back session the way we had today.
Yes, I think it shows a couple of things.
I think that it shows that there is still a desire to own these names.
There's still a belief in the AI narrative overall, and I think that, you know, by and large, It doesn't look like there's anything that's going to, you know, at least in the short term, slow the narrative down anyway, you know, the spending, the Capex, the memory shortages, those are all things that are going to be sticking for a little bit longer.
I don't know if it's 3 months longer or 3 years longer or 3 decades longer, but it looks like it's still going to be here and things will kind of pop up here and there that kind of have investors pull back a little bit, especially from things that have gotten really extended, but There's an underlying bid.
People want to own these names, and you're seeing it right in days like today.
Yes, I mean, talk about getting an underlying bid.
We've got more analysts here on Wall Street who suddenly are coming out as we kick off Q3, and they're saying S&P 8000 on the table, S&P 8200 on the table, and your expertise, what has to go right for the market to still keep moving?
Another notable leg higher.
Earnings have powered this market higher.
It's been basically the tech earnings, but you know just overall earnings in general have been doing.
Well for the past several years now, so you absolutely still need earnings to continue to grow as they have been.
It's going to get harder for the tech names to show that growth that we saw 1 or 2 years ago where they were just putting up astronomical growth numbers.
That's just going to be a lure of large numbers, harder to put up those numbers.
But if they can continue showing just really solid results, that's going to probably help at least keep the multiple intact.
And then you're going to have to see the other.
The other sectors kind of fill in for where there might be some pullback where investors are going, well, this stock isn't growing 300% anymore earnings wise.
What else can I move into?
So if those stocks can get a bid, that could kind of help the S&P 500 get to those targets that some of those analysts have put out there.
Maybe not a ton of catalysts to trade on this week, but we do have Fed minutes and in any given cycle we always look for the release of those Fed minutes to kind of give us a little bit of a better sense of what's under the hood for the preceding central bank.
It's the first one for Kevin Warsh.
How significant might that be when we learn a little bit more about what a new look central bank will be like in the next few days?
Yes, I think it's going to be really interesting for the Fed nerds and the Fed watchers and the ones who really get under the hood and who talk about these things on a daily basis, and that's awesome.
I don't know how much it's going to move markets or how much the market is really going to take from it.
Maybe a short term, you know, move here and there when they first come out, you know, at 2 o'clock or whatever, but I don't know if long term it's really going to have an impact.
We still don't know what these task forces that Kevin Warsh is setting up.
We have to wait for them to come back with their recommendations.
The committee has to come and say what they will or will not do or what they like and what they don't like.
I mean there's still so much to come, but it might be interesting to see how.
The committee is evolving from, you know, Powell's last Fed meeting to what Warsh and what, you know, what the minutes say for this one.
So just seeing what changes are there is going to be really interesting.
Well, from one Fed nerd to another, let me express my gratitude for you being here to kick off the show today, my man.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Anytime.
It's always a pleasure.
I love doing this.
