Navigating Uncertainty: Insights on Tariffs, AI, and Market Trends

Let's get to the big story breakdown.

It may be summer, but markets have been active, and temperatures aren't the only highs we're seeing from record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as well as Nvidia Bitcoin to earnings.

Data and politics, money happening across assets this week.

Now stocks took a while riding Q2 and big banks did cash in.

All five bulge bracket banks JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley City, and Bank of America posting double digit equities trading gains compared to last year.

Well, joining me for a To look at what the markets this week is Peter Tuchman, senior floor trader at Trade Moss.

Peter, happy Friday.

Happy summer Friday to you.

It's a beautiful thing.

Well, here we are.

We saw record highs yet once again for the S&P 500, as well as the Nasdaq, and we have a lot happening in the nation's capital here.

So how do you feel at the end of the week?

You know what I think it's net net is a really positive week.

I mean, you kind of sometimes have to look into the nooks and crannies of the market to see it because we're sort of the market's reaction has been a little bit muted, right?

We're not.

Seeing that overreaction to the uncertainty around tariffs, although you just, I mean, your opening was spectacular because you really laid out so much.

We now know where crypto, the cryptos were solid.

It's on the rise that what's coming out of the White House as far as the the bill that was passed, which did not pass originally, that's a good thing.

You've got Goldman Sachs and the bank earnings across the board.

You name the five biggest bulge bracket banks that are double digit growth there.

That's super solid.

And so.

I think the market is in good shape.

We had a couple of days where the market was sort of indecisive in directionality, but if you look in the nooks and crannies of it, you're seeing, you know, such solid growth in the banks, and earnings have been super good, and we're not getting that uncertainty and that angst around earnings season that we did back in the last quarter where we had, you know, reasonable earnings, but the fact that it was so muted by the lack of ability for Guidance because of all the uncertainty around tariffs, we didn't even notice that earnings were OK and that's sort of why we're able to be where we are in the market.

We are trading at record highs.

There is uncertainty globally.

There is uncertainty, you know, in the administration and around the tariff story still, but apparently there are deals being made, and I think the market kind of feels that.

Yeah, and speaking of deals being made, let's talk about. tech and what we're seeing in some key AI names here because it was only earlier this week that Trump and executives from some big tech companies were in Pennsylvania making that announcement, that multi-billion dollar announcement about AI data centers and investments.

So where do we go from here?

Should we be concerned about concentration risk in tech right now?

What, I don't, I really don't think so.

I think there seems to be, you know, you know, I'm close with Dan Ives and obviously Dan Ives is the guru of tech, and I read that he has an amazing newsletter, and we hope he's coming on the show here soon and you know, he really, he talks that this is the 4th industrial revolution that the cap X is in the trillions of dollars, and that there's plenty of room for.

They're not feeling that there's some hyper competition in this, you know, there are, there are secondary and tertiary derivatives of the AI trade in some of the smaller names that we're seeing midcap and small cap in the AI names that have got a. future.

A lot of money being spent, so I think, I think we're in good shape and the market is showing us that obviously look, we look at the Mach 7, we look at the best of breed with Jensen, who's been really close with the White House.

We saw that.

The announcement in Pennsylvania of trillions and trillions of dollars being put to AI, you know, so for a while there in April when things were a little sketchy with Nvidia when the president was sort of blocking them from selling their chips, we were looking more like we were going to be hanging out with the Flintstones.

I think we're going to be hanging out with the Jetsons.

So everybody should just watch out because we're going to be flying around in little Jetsons cars before you know it.

That's a good analogy, Peter.

So finally, last but not least, it's sometimes very hard to separate what happens in the nation's capital in terms of politics from what happens on Wall Street.

And earlier this week we saw concerns about Fletcher Powell weigh on the markets.

But how do you see this back and forth, this he said she said saga weighing on not just equities but the US dollar and other assets?

Well, let's be clear.

It was Mr.

Trump who who recommended that Powell be the Fed chairman when his agenda was a little bit different and we know that he was going up against Powell because Powell, knowing that where where the low growth slow growth situation was relative to tariffs, that he did not want to cut interest rates because that would put us in a state of stagflation which they did not want to do.

So you know, I think there It's almost like they're creating this drama unnecessarily.

At the end of the day, in my opinion, I think Pa has done a really great job across the board, and I, and I think most people are happy with him.

The fact is that Mr.

Trump likes to control the situation.

People need to know that there is a wall.

There is a legal, legal wall between Mr.

Trump and the Federal Reserve.

They're not, he's not allowed to fire him, you know, and God knows.

I hope that he doesn't try and oust him in some other way because he's done a great job.

Think about.

It, you know, look, he was, he was the Fed chairman throughout all that uncertainty around COVID, and he took us out of the bowels of heck where inflation was at 8%.

We got it down to 2% and change, right?

If you look at all the economic data that you and I talk about every Monday and Friday, the economic data is spectacular.

The economy is doing well and sometimes politics and the markets trade in concerts, sometimes they completely go another way.

Fortunately right now, I think the market's got a mind of its own.

Looking at the future as a solid future once we make these deals as far as tariffs go, I think we're off to the races, Mr.

Powell.

Look, we saw a bit of a shake up when the breaking news came out about Powell.

You know, I think the market really supports him, but you know what, you know, obviously the new sheriff in town is a lot more powerful than me, and so he'll be the one making the decision.

Well, Peter, as always great to have you here.

We'll be talking on Monday, so have a great weekend. back on Monday.

Happy trading, everybody.