We return from a long holiday weekend.
The dominant geopolitical theme continues to be US Iran relations.
Now last week, both sides signed a deal to end hostilities and opened the Strait of Hormuz.
The US and Iran are making major progress in Switzerland toward a final peace deal.
BP JD Vance let the American delegation and talks that established a high-level committee to finalize nuclear limits and sanctions over the next 60 days.
Now the parties also created a specific task force to officially.
And military hostilities in Lebanon.
That's now saying that Iran has agreed to invite inspectors from the IEA into the country to inspect the nuclear sites.
Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister claims that Tehran has already secured waivers for oil exports and also the release of frozen assets, calling the summit a major success.
And Trump and Vance in unison when it comes to Israel.
Trump criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu saying he doesn't know what he's doing when it comes to Lebanon.
And of course British Prime Minister Keir Stormer in the spotlight after officially stepping down following a massive rebellion within his Labour Party.
Well joining me this morning to weigh in is Patrick L.
Young, chairman and founder of Exchange Invest.
Patrick, a lot of headlines to sift through this morning.
We've since we last spoke, US and Iran has signed a deal, and so there's a lot to go through.
So what do you make of the agreement as well as the latest talks here?
Well, it's very interesting actually, the, the latest talks are now going on at the Bergentock resort in Switzerland, above Lake Lucerne, which famously was the most important hub for derivatives conferences in Europe throughout the 1980s, 1990s and into the 2000s.
And during that time, the chairman of the Life Exchange, Sir Brian Williamson, famously termed the creation of MOUs at Birkenstock between exchanges as being a botch up behind the bike sheds at Bergentock, and.
One really has to worry that that might be the same thing once again.
I mean, in all possible material senses, it looks as if the Iranian military has been soundly defeated by both Israel first up, and then also the United States of America.
But they've still managed to keep the Hormuz, Hormuz Straits closed at various points in time.
So therefore, the concessions seem to be not quite as generous on the top as they might be.
But then we look at the streets of Tehran this weekend.
What are we seeing?
Lots.
Lots of women running around without their hijabs on.
What does that tell us?
It tells us that the regime is under critical strain right now, and we may see a revolution to end the revolution.
So therefore, it's all to play for in Switzerland because what the USA has to do is keep the pressure on Iran, and ultimately also probably keep its foot on the neck of the pistachio exports, even if that might be bad news for Dubai chocolate lovers.
Well speaking of which, in Switzerland, the parties also created a new deconfliction cell between the US, Iran, as well as Lebanon, and the goal is to permanently end military hostilities in Lebanon, which has threatened to derail the broader diplomatic effort here.
So Patrick, how do you see this moving forward?
It's very interesting, isn't it?
I mean, we've got conflict between the US side, both President Trump and indeed Vice President Vance, and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, which is quite rare to see those two actually having a beef in public.
At the same time, it's very difficult for Israel to really sit around and say, yes, it's absolutely fine to have a bunch of wackos in the Lebanese countryside firing off into Israeli territory.
This one's got.
Some way to run, because ultimately, Iran is going to try and play for time.
That's what they're incredibly good at doing.
They're going to try and prolong and prorogue the negotiations.
But I think they may find that they're going to hit a short, sharp shock, because sooner or later, they're under pressure from so many quarters that maybe the USA doesn't have to have that agreement that looks incredibly uniquely like a total surrender, as President Trump has claimed, in order to manage.
To get the Iranians to sort out their act.
But nonetheless, there are hideous issues still arising.
Iranian human rights violations and so on.
Famous singers being sent for 75 lashes just last week, for the sin of being female and not wearing a hijab.
That seems quite bonkers and uh a fundamentalist move.
What's gonna come out of Switzerland?
I think ultimately it's gonna be closer to peace, but it's not gonna be a linear path.
Well Patrick, there are a lot of moving parts here, so I do want to get your take on what all of this means for global inflation, especially at a time when we're seeing the likes of the ECB as well as BOJ hiking rates.
But right now we are looking at oil, both WTI and below that $80 a barrel level and hopefully it does remain.
Below those levels, but I understand you're tracking inflation in things such as pistachios as well as perfume based on the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
So can you take us through this?
So it's really, really interesting.
Pistachios are the largest export product of Iran, and it's been a huge boon.
I mean in terms of agricultural commodity, not oil.
And as an edible, of the, the last few years have been incredible.
There are now perfumes based on pistachio as a result of the Dubai chocolate boom, patissiers the world over are trying to incorporate more pistachio into everything from their macaroons to their mealfoys, and that's driven huge price inflation.
That price inflation.
Which has been greater than the oil market, incidentally, is going through the roof.
Why?
Because the 2025 Iranian export, which amounts to a significant portion of the entire world's pistachio supply, don't forget there are trees that are 700 years old and older in Iran, producing this bounteous fruit.
The, Difficulty is getting that out into the Straits of Hormuz is going to manage to keep prices high until there is distribution of the pistachio.
So therefore inflation is a huge issue.
It's not going to suddenly deplete itself because we have the Straits of Hormuz open, particularly because more importantly in the macroeconomic world, what we know.
Is that oil prices are going to remain high because a lot of strategic reserves have been allowed to dwindle, and therefore they're going to have to be built up.
So we're not suddenly going to see a mega collapse in oil prices, but it's going to be at least a slightly healthier outlook for inflation in the course of sometime through the summer rising season in the USA.
Patrick, it's really interesting you brought up Dubai chocolate because it does seem to be everywhere, so everything from Dubai chocolate pies to Dubai chocolate ice cream.
And we will have to keep an eye on what does actually happen when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz.
But finally, before I let you go, we have about 60 seconds for your answer here.
So I do want to get your take on Keir Starmer officially stepping down after a labor rebellion, clearing the path for Andy Burnham.
So give us your take on what we can expect in terms of timeline as well as progress for the UK economy.
In terms of linearity, expect more decline in the UK because ultimately Andy Burnham doesn't have a clue about economics.
He's not willing to take the difficult decisions which Starmer wasn't willing to take, and indeed, none of the past, what are we now up to the 7th UK Prime Minister, uh, 6th UK Prime Minister in 7 years.
Quite ludicrous.
Nobody wants to tackle the economy.
We're going to get more.
Ow jaw, we're gonna get more political correctness, and ultimately the UK economy's gonna atrophy because nobody understands how to defeat it.
But let's face it, Burnham, well, let's put it another way.
Starmer's demise was inevitable from the day he was elected because he simply wasn't capable of office.
And that's sadly something we've been saying about British Prime Ministers for the past decade.
Well, Patrick, always great talking to you.
We will have to leave it there.
Thank you so much for your time today and thank you so much for all of your insights.
