The AI boom is putting the IPO market back in the spotlight, with Anthropic reportedly eyeing a valuation as high as $2 trillion. But does one big listing mean the door is open for everyone else? Joining me now is Kamran Ansari, Venture Partner at Infinity Ventures. Kamran, welcome to the show. Is the IPO market really back or is this just open for a few standout names?
I think it's the latter. We thought the market was back. And Oura — the maker of the Oura ring — was going to come out. And then just yesterday they pulled their listing. Bambu Insurance, Whole Tech, Amaro also announced they're pulling back their listings. So it's a market that has eyes for Anthropic. Right now everyone finds Anthropic to be the most beautiful. It's a singular name that everyone's waiting for — but the others are having a hard time. The reason is macro risk. You have high yield rates, high interest rates, high inflation. That has created real choppiness in the market.
What are the real signs that the IPO market is healthy for smaller companies?
I remember the Pinterest IPO — we were a $10 to $12 billion IPO at the time. That's a tremendous listing — a big listing today. These days, I think the minimum is kind of that size. $10 to $15 billion. Anything below that feels like a small-cap name that's hard to come out. But once you see some of these names finally come out, the others will dust off their S-1, dust off the roadshow and come out — maybe before the end of the year or Q1.
If investors are saying Anthropic is worth $2 trillion, what would you need to see to believe it?
The stock market is a massive voting machine, and Anthropic is believed to be the singular name coming out. If you see the S-1 that was leaked yesterday, there are some startling numbers that I don't think justify a $2 trillion valuation. However, the growth rate is extraordinary. The company went from about $5 to $6 billion revenue last year to currently around a $70 billion run rate. That type of growth at that scale is staggering. There is no precedent for what is happening here.
What makes a fintech company hard to replace specifically?
If you and I wanted to start a T-shirt company, we could be up and running this afternoon. If we want to start a bank — minimum 18 months, two years, three years. A lending business, a payment, even a Venmo clone — you need licences, you need to be regulated, you need to have safeguards for fraud. You are not going to open a payment business today and still be in business by Friday — you will just get slammed with fraud. So from zero to one is a very difficult prospect for any company that does payments, lending, banking, or insurance. And therefore it is hard to replicate once you get there.
If Anthropic disappoints on its IPO, how bad could the fallout be?
If there's a hiccup it will be devastating for a down market. All the other companies waiting to go public who don't have the Anthropic story — and even private companies on the venture side — will feel it. The trickle-down effect of a disappointing IPO for Anthropic will have real ramifications for the whole ecosystem. I don't think that's going to happen. But SpaceX came out and it has not done great. The precedent is there that it could be choppy.
Cameron, thank you so much for joining us today.
No problem.
