JD Durkin: Michael Reinking joins us now, senior market strategist here at the New York Stock Exchange. We’re going nuts for you here, bud.
Michael Reinking: Yeah, we’ve got a big crowd here.
JD Durkin: Yeah, a big, big loud one. Hopefully we get [unclear: “crowd out giant Stadium”] later tonight.
Michael Reinking: Cool. Let’s go.
JD Durkin: We have Thursday Night Football. We have a broadcast we need to do first. But, you know how I am, I’m, like, very much thinking about Thursday Night Football. But let’s get your take, not only on the reaction to the Nvidia news we came into premarket. We were all seeing that down 11%, down 12%. The bulls really pulled up that stock. How are you thinking, not so much about that story, but what it means for the broader AI trade?
Michael Reinking: Yeah. Look, you know, the markets have had a lot thrown at them over the last couple of weeks, right? So we had, you know, the reaction to midterms, the very, very sharp selloff that we had at the end of last week, and then we bounced back, right? So we’re seeing quite a bit of resilience, right? The Nvidia story, you know, you have a leader who is a visionary, who’s been very much at the kind of forefront of this AI technological revolution. Not only that, right, he’s also, this company has now become, you know, very central to the financing of that entire kind of build-out, right? So we’re going to have to see kind of how this impacts things on a go-forward basis. You know, the stock was down about 30% coming into today’s session, right? So you have seen kind of the Street de-risking, and I think that’s a lot of what’s happened, that this entire sector in general has been very, very de-risked ahead of some of the chaos that we’ve seen. And we’re now starting to see them try to base out.
JD Durkin: Yeah. I’m glad you mentioned the midterm elections, because I had forgotten that we had those a week ago. There’s been so much that’s happened. We’ve all slept very little. Let me get your take on some of the inflation prints, because we’re a couple days removed from a hotter-than-expected, at least a little bit, headline CPI and core CPI both ran about a tenth of a percent hot. We set the stage for the PPI wholesale inflation print tomorrow. We’re getting a little closer to December 9th. What does the Fed do with what they’ve seen?
Michael Reinking: Yeah. So when I talk about the market showing resilience, I think that’s one of the things that I’m actually most surprised about, is that since last week, we’ve seen Treasury yields move up over 30 basis points across the curve, right? So we’ve not only kind of had to digest all this AI-related news, we’re also seeing a very significant repricing in Treasury markets, right? That came on the back of the hot inflation print that you just pointed out, and comments from [unclear: “Fed Chair, or not Fed Chair, he was a nominee at one point, Fed Waller”], who suggested that if we got a hot print, he would support a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming December meeting. We got that hot print. We’ve very much seen markets start to reprice. We’re seeing some probability of a 50 basis point hike in December creep into the market, but I think more likely is what that’s done is put a January hike more firmly, or the potential for a January hike more firmly, on the table. So we’re looking at one in December and then potentially two in the first quarter of next year, up from one in the first quarter prior to that.
JD Durkin: Amazing how quickly that narrative shifted. Who came into 2026 talking about interest rate hikes? And now we’ve got a potential 50 bips on the table. And of course, most importantly, maybe we’ll see what the New York football Giants got going on.
Michael Reinking: Yeah, hopefully we can wrap up the division tonight. I think that would be nice.
JD Durkin: It’s nice to see you here. Michael Reinking, senior market strategist at the Big Board. We’ll talk to you again.
