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Stocks Mixed as Investors Eye Bank Earnings and CPI

Market Movers: Midday

October 12, 2026

Video Transcript

Remy Blaire: And with midday trade underway, let’s go out to Chicago. FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins us live from the trading floor. Hey, Mark. First and foremost, tell us what activity you’re following in midday trade on this Monday.

Mark Payton: Hey, Remy. We’re seeing a mixed market this morning. The Dow is up about four-tenths of a percent, while the S&P 500 is down about one-tenth, and the Nasdaq is lower by about three-tenths of a percent. Some of the biggest technology stocks are pulling the overall index lower, while energy stocks are gaining ground.

Here at Cboe, the VIX has been trading around 15.3, up more than 3% today, so we’re seeing a little more demand for protection against market swings. Oil is another big story, with WTI around $94 a barrel and Brent above 106 as concerns about energy supplies continue.

And looking ahead, Wednesday brings the September inflation report, while tomorrow kicks off third-quarter earnings season with some of Wall Street’s biggest banks. So both will be a major focus for investors this week.

Remy Blaire: Yeah. And Mark, as you mentioned, tomorrow morning we get a slew of earnings even before the market opens. So what are prediction market traders expecting, especially as we hear from some of the banking giants?

Mark Payton: Yeah. What’s really interesting is the difference between some of these big banks reporting tomorrow. On Polymarket, traders are giving JPMorgan a 96% probability of beating its earnings target. Citigroup is about 90%, and Wells Fargo is at 87%. But here’s the surprise: Goldman Sachs is sitting at just 28%.

Now, why such a big difference? Goldman had an exceptional second quarter, and there’s a question about whether trading and investment banking revenue can maintain that momentum. So traders may see a tougher earnings target for Goldman to beat. But remember, this doesn’t mean Goldman is expected to lose money or that its stock will fall. These probabilities are about whether each company beats a specific earnings per share target. And tomorrow we’ll see how those predictions stack up against the actual results.

Remy Blaire: Well, Mark, a lot to keep our eyes on as we head into tomorrow’s trading session, especially with those earnings slated for release ahead of the market open tomorrow. Thank you so much for joining us, Mark.

Mark Payton: Thank you.

Stocks are trading mixed as big technology names weigh on the Nasdaq and energy stocks gain ground ahead of a busy week of bank earnings and inflation data. FINTECH.TV correspondent Mark Payton joins Remy Blaire live from the Cboe trading floor in Chicago to break down the session and what prediction market traders expect from Wall Street’s biggest banks.

Payton reports the Dow up about four tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 down about one tenth, and the Nasdaq lower by about three tenths of a percent, with some of the largest technology stocks pulling the index lower. The VIX is trading around 15.3, up more than 3%, signaling more demand for protection against market swings, while WTI crude is around $94 a barrel and Brent is above $106 as concerns about energy supplies continue.

With third quarter earnings season kicking off with major banks and the September inflation report due Wednesday, Payton says Polymarket traders are giving JPMorgan a 96% probability of beating its earnings target, Citigroup about 90%, and Wells Fargo 87%, while Goldman Sachs sits at just 28%. He explains that after an exceptional second quarter for Goldman, traders may see a tougher earnings target to beat, noting the probabilities reflect whether each bank beats a specific earnings per share target rather than expectations for losses or stock declines.

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